BOS beat BUF 3–2 in overtime. BOS also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Sean Kuraly scored at 3:44 of overtime, moving BOS’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:40 | BUF | Marco Scandella from Jeff Skinner, Sam Reinhart | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 9:30 |  BOS | Noel Acciari unassisted | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 5:43 | BUF | Johan LarssonSH from Evan Rodrigues, Marco Scandella | 1–2 | 52% → 72% |
| P3 17:31 | BOS | Jake DeBruskPP from Torey Krug, David Pastrnak | 2–2 | 8% → 49% |
| OT 3:44 | BOS | Sean Kuraly from Matt Grzelcyk, Kevan Miller | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake DeBrusk L | 17:19 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.13 | +0.55 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 15:43 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.33 | +0.56 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Noel Acciari C | 14:34 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.02 | +0.58 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Kevan Miller D | 22:00 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.33 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 21:20 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Pastrnak R | 22:34 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.02 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Zdeno Chara D | 19:25 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 8:05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 19:58 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson C | 14:15 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 11:14 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 21:27 | −0.08 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colby Cave C | 10:15 | −0.10 | +0.09 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.03 | ||
| John Moore D | 18:11 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Krejci C | 19:29 | −0.15 | +0.12 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.03 | ||
| Joakim Nordstrom C | 14:45 | −0.27 | −0.12 | −0.13 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Chris Wagner R | 14:37 | −0.36 | −0.00 | −0.34 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrice Bergeron C | 22:49 | −0.41 | +0.08 | −0.52 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tuukka Rask G | 63:44 | +0.69 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johan Larsson L | 15:09 | 1 | +0.90 | −0.09 | +0.82 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Scandella D | 18:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.07 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jake McCabe D | 22:03 | +0.08 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 17:28 | +0.06 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 18:39 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 10:47 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 16:12 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Pominville R | 11:17 | −0.05 | +0.06 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 15:32 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Vladimir Sobotka C | 15:50 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.26 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 20:08 | −0.22 | −0.27 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Remi Elie L | 9:30 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 22:25 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 14:55 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 19:44 | −0.40 | −0.27 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 14:30 | −0.42 | −0.14 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 25:22 | −0.44 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 19:06 | 1 | −0.55 | −0.28 | −0.58 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.36 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hutton G | 63:42 | +0.09 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.