NYI beat OTT 6–3. Expected goals were close to even (OTT 2.3, NYI 2.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Mathew Barzal scored at 4:51 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 52% to 79%. Mike McKenna allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:18 | OTT | Mark Stone unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 2:47 | OTT | Matt DuchenePP from Bobby Ryan, Thomas Chabot | 2–0 | 67% → 81% |
| P2 3:11 | NYI | Josh Bailey from Mathew Barzal | 2–1 | 19% → 34% |
| P2 6:11 | OTT | Cody Ceci from Chris Tierney, Mikkel Boedker | 3–1 | 67% → 83% |
| P2 17:28 | NYI | Anders Lee unassisted | 3–2 | 12% → 29% |
| P3 2:57 | NYI | Johnny Boychuk from Casey Cizikas, Matt Martin | 3–3 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 4:51 | NYI | Mathew Barzal from Leo Komarov, Anthony Beauvillier | 3–4 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 12:24 | NYI | Mathew Barzal from Josh Bailey | 3–5 | 85% → 97% |
| P3 19:06 | NYI | Casey CizikasEN from Tom Kuhnhackl | 3–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Ceci D | 26:07 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.04 | +0.74 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Stone R | 20:23 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.07 | +0.65 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 21:06 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.05 | +0.79 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Christian Jaros D | 13:30 | +0.32 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Borowiecki D | 13:53 | +0.06 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Ryan R | 16:36 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 8:47 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikkel Boedker L | 16:37 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Magnus Paajarvi L | 7:07 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 17:54 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Harpur D | 17:43 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 7:02 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 16:29 | −0.26 | +0.04 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zack Smith C | 19:37 | −0.32 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Maxime Lajoie D | 21:46 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin White C | 17:23 | −0.34 | +0.11 | −0.37 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Ryan Dzingel C | 19:05 | −0.36 | −0.09 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 18:33 | 1 | −0.57 | −0.02 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mike McKenna G | 58:22 | −2.53 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathew Barzal C | 19:50 | 2 | 1 | +1.89 | +0.16 | +1.66 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Josh Bailey R | 19:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.12 | +0.71 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Johnny Boychuk D | 20:12 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.06 | +0.80 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Lee C | 18:10 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.05 | +0.53 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Mayfield D | 21:46 | +0.04 | +0.13 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Ho-Sang R | 15:53 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 18:51 | +0.02 | +0.13 | −0.15 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 9:47 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Valtteri Filppula C | 13:18 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Leo Komarov R | 14:53 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 18:49 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 18:51 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 12:48 | 1 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.09 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 18:03 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.11 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 18:10 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 20:48 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Kuhnhackl R | 11:56 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ross Johnston L | 7:40 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Robin Lehner G | 33:49 | +0.87 |
| Thomas Greiss G | 26:11 | −1.34 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.