TOR beat DET 5–4 in overtime. TOR also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kasperi Kapanen scored at 1:53 of overtime, moving TOR’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Jonathan Bernier allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:27 | TOR | Kasperi Kapanen from Auston Matthews, Morgan Rielly | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 3:45 | DET | Filip Hronek unassisted | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 19:18 | DET | Michael RasmussenPP from Dylan Larkin, Nick Jensen | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 9:53 | DET | Christoffer Ehn from Wade Megan | 3–1 | 68% → 84% |
| P2 12:52 | TOR | Frederik Gauthier from Par Lindholm, Trevor Moore | 3–2 | 14% → 31% |
| P2 14:00 | TOR | Morgan Rielly from John Tavares, Andreas Johnsson | 3–3 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 12:03 | DET | Frans Nielsen from Niklas Kronwall, Tyler Bertuzzi | 4–3 | 48% → 82% |
| P3 19:52 | TOR | John TavaresPP from Jake Gardiner | 4–4 | 4% → 51% |
| OT 1:53 | TOR | Kasperi Kapanen from Travis Dermott, Nazem Kadri | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christoffer Ehn C | 10:49 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.19 | +0.86 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Rasmussen C | 13:56 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.07 | +0.53 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 19:34 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.11 | +0.79 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Frans Nielsen C | 17:06 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.09 | +0.31 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dennis Cholowski D | 14:21 | +0.16 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 17:03 | +0.15 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Thomas Vanek L | 16:17 | +0.05 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 22:02 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Abdelkader L | 18:37 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Niklas Kronwall D | 21:58 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob de la Rose L | 15:14 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wade Megan C | 8:17 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Luke Witkowski D | 2:45 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Ericsson D | 22:55 | −0.10 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 19:31 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor Daley D | 16:26 | −0.19 | −0.22 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 23:36 | 1 | −0.68 | −0.21 | −0.46 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Nyquist R | 21:26 | −0.92 | −0.24 | −0.70 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Bernier G | 61:39 | −1.58 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 18:45 | 2 | +1.41 | +0.07 | +1.35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 26:46 | 1 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.20 | +0.83 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| John Tavares C | 20:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.22 | +0.48 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.02 |
| Frederik Gauthier C | 6:37 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.02 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jake Gardiner D | 25:45 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ron Hainsey D | 19:16 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 17:31 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 15:38 | +0.00 | +0.22 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Trevor Moore L | 5:27 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andreas Johnsson L | 15:33 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Marleau C | 17:45 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Par Lindholm C | 8:09 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Travis Dermott D | 15:12 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Brown R | 14:42 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 13:25 | −0.27 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 20:26 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.17 | −0.44 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 20:21 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.14 | −0.62 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 20:33 | −0.57 | +0.23 | −0.48 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.36 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Garret Sparks G | 59:21 | −1.26 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.