MTL beat VGK 4–3 in overtime. MTL also won the expected-goals battle 5.0 to 3.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Paul Byron scored at 1:59 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:40 | MTL | Phillip Danault from Brendan Gallagher, Tomas Tatar | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 16:24 | VGK | Brandon Pirri from Alex Tuch, William Karlsson | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 4:52 | VGK | Jonathan Marchessault from Brayden McNabb, William Karlsson | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 8:10 | MTL | Phillip Danault from Jordie Benn, Brendan Gallagher | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 13:59 | VGK | Brandon Pirri from Brayden McNabb | 2–3 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 18:35 | MTL | Phillip DanaultPP from Max Domi, Tomas Tatar | 3–3 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 1:59 | MTL | Paul Byron from Max Domi, Victor Mete | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Danault C | 19:23 | 3 | +2.14 | +0.10 | +2.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Paul Byron L | 17:39 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.29 | +0.54 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Weber D | 26:06 | +0.24 | +0.39 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Shaw R | 14:42 | +0.22 | +0.32 | −0.23 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 17:42 | +0.21 | +0.36 | −0.12 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 14:55 | +0.05 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 17:44 | 2 | +0.04 | +0.41 | −0.43 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jordie Benn D | 18:12 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Drouin L | 18:08 | −0.03 | +0.21 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kenny Agostino L | 10:36 | −0.05 | +0.10 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 15:00 | −0.05 | +0.37 | −0.41 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Victor Mete D | 19:37 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 17:09 | 2 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 8:24 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 18:19 | 2 | −0.24 | +0.08 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Michael Chaput C | 10:12 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 15:36 | −0.31 | +0.10 | −0.42 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 23:19 | −0.63 | −0.13 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carey Price G | 61:13 | −0.58 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pirri C | 15:57 | 2 | +1.58 | +0.09 | +1.52 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 18:26 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.10 | +0.48 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 9:19 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Deryk Engelland D | 23:28 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 14:06 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 18:31 | 2 | −0.11 | +0.08 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Brad Hunt D | 13:51 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 12:50 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cody Eakin C | 13:48 | −0.17 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 12:13 | −0.19 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 19:13 | −0.20 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 24:56 | −0.21 | −0.14 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 9:38 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 19:21 | 2 | −0.29 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 23:20 | −0.32 | −0.13 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 15:59 | −0.32 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 17:56 | 1 | −0.55 | −0.17 | −0.42 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Stastny C | 19:09 | −0.77 | −0.49 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 61:59 | +0.24 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.