NYR beat ANA 3–1. Expected goals were close to even (ANA 1.9, NYR 2.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Kevin Hayes scored short-handed at 19:20 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 49% to 96%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 14:09 | ANA | Pontus Aberg from Ryan Getzlaf, Ondrej Kase | 1–0 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 9:52 | NYR | Vladislav Namestnikov from Brett Howden, Jimmy Vesey | 1–1 | 20% → 52% |
| P3 19:20 | NYR | Kevin HayesSH from Vladislav Namestnikov | 1–2 | 49% → 96% |
| P3 19:41 | NYR | Filip ChytilEN from Vladislav Namestnikov, Mika Zibanejad | 1–3 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontus Aberg L | 19:51 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.14 | +0.78 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Brian Gibbons C | 9:49 | +0.20 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 23:00 | +0.19 | +0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Larsson D | 16:35 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Ritchie L | 15:47 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Rowney C | 8:50 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Joshua Mahura D | 12:36 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 9:45 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 7:50 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Kesler C | 19:59 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.11 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 24:17 | −0.18 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Dotchin D | 11:50 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 22:32 | −0.22 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 15:38 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 20:59 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.11 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Daniel Sprong R | 16:20 | −0.29 | −0.21 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Kase R | 19:06 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.10 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Adam Henrique C | 19:32 | −0.60 | −0.31 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson G | 59:44 | +0.23 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Hayes R | 21:43 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.14 | +0.75 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.07 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 14:02 | 1 | 2 | +0.82 | +0.30 | +0.52 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Marc Staal D | 20:43 | +0.22 | +0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 19:18 | +0.18 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 26:35 | +0.15 | +0.19 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 14:32 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Adam McQuaid D | 17:07 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 14:40 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 15:19 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 16:01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lias Andersson C | 6:09 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 15:18 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Chytil C | 15:58 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 7:51 | −0.24 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 12:54 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.11 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 22:48 | −0.28 | −0.11 | −0.18 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Boo Nieves C | 7:29 | −0.44 | +0.03 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 21:40 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.14 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 59:53 | +0.40 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.