OTT beat NSH 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (NSH 2.0, OTT 1.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Thomas Chabot scored at 0:21 of overtime, moving OTT’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:25 | OTT | Maxime LajoiePP from Mikkel Boedker, Drake Batherson | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 5:22 | OTT | Brady Tkachuk from Mark Stone, Colin White | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 19:48 | OTT | Ryan Dzingel from Mark Stone | 0–3 | 85% → 93% |
| P2 5:37 | NSH | Roman JosiPP from Ryan Ellis, Ryan Johansen | 1–3 | 5% → 13% |
| P3 0:46 | NSH | Craig SmithPP from Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen | 2–3 | 8% → 23% |
| P3 6:56 | NSH | Roman Josi from Kevin Fiala, Ryan Johansen | 3–3 | 19% → 48% |
| OT 0:21 | OTT | Thomas Chabot from Ryan Dzingel | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Josi D | 23:54 | 2 | 1 | +0.97 | −0.03 | +1.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Craig Smith C | 16:39 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.07 | +0.58 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rocco Grimaldi R | 8:33 | +0.25 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 18:34 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.36 | +0.01 | ||
| Kyle Turris C | 16:07 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 9:47 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 14:18 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yannick Weber D | 11:19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Irwin D | 11:55 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 24:54 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dan Hamhuis D | 21:58 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 20:03 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Ellis D | 23:07 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.23 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Johansen C | 16:55 | 3 | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Fiala L | 16:14 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Miikka Salomaki R | 9:49 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 15:55 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 15:58 | −0.27 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 40:21 | −0.18 |
| Pekka Rinne G | 19:42 | −1.83 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Chabot D | 24:37 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.15 | +0.64 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Dzingel C | 20:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.08 | +0.79 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.04 |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 15:36 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.06 | +0.77 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Maxime Lajoie D | 13:31 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.02 | +0.82 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Pyatt L | 10:09 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Harpur D | 18:18 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Jaros D | 11:04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Borowiecki D | 10:47 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 25:10 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikkel Boedker L | 16:24 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bobby Ryan R | 11:31 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin White C | 17:24 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Magnus Paajarvi L | 14:26 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 23:48 | 2 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.09 | +0.05 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 9:24 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Zack Smith C | 16:23 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 21:35 | −0.22 | +0.17 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Justin Falk D | 12:16 | −0.36 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 60:10 | −0.58 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.