FLA beat TOR 4–3 in overtime. FLA lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Aleksander Barkov scored at 3:24 of overtime, moving FLA’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Roberto Luongo saved 1.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:56 | FLA | Aleksander BarkovPP from Evgenii Dadonov, Mike Hoffman | 0–1 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 8:03 | FLA | Jonathan HuberdeauPP from Keith Yandle, Mike Hoffman | 0–2 | 74% → 88% |
| P3 10:24 |  TOR | John Tavares from Jake Gardiner, Morgan Rielly | 1–2 | 4% → 17% |
| P3 16:21 | TOR | Mitch Marner from Nazem Kadri, Nikita Zaitsev | 2–2 | 9% → 49% |
| P3 16:48 | FLA | Aleksander Barkov from Troy Brouwer, Denis Malgin | 2–3 | 51% → 91% |
| P3 18:20 | TOR | Mitch MarnerPP from Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner | 3–3 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 3:24 | FLA | Aleksander Barkov from Jonathan Huberdeau | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner R | 20:42 | 2 | +1.68 | +0.18 | +1.44 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 21:03 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.02 | +0.54 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 20:04 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Marleau C | 13:54 | +0.22 | +0.31 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Gardiner D | 22:40 | 2 | +0.19 | +0.31 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ron Hainsey D | 19:29 | +0.13 | +0.20 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 19:44 | +0.12 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Andreas Johnsson L | 14:31 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 17:00 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.21 | −0.22 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Brown R | 10:40 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Igor Ozhiganov D | 13:32 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 14:20 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Ennis R | 7:44 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Par Lindholm C | 10:44 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 27:04 | 2 | −0.30 | +0.16 | −0.46 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Nylander R | 17:24 | −0.43 | +0.07 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 17:54 | −0.57 | +0.08 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 16:33 | −0.86 | +0.04 | −0.51 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.36 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 62:29 | −0.83 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksander Barkov C | 27:42 | 3 | +1.82 | −0.00 | +1.82 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 24:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.11 | +0.74 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Aaron Ekblad D | 27:14 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Micheal Haley L | 5:15 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 18:11 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 11:40 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 22:23 | −0.15 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Juho Lammikko C | 10:20 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keith Yandle D | 21:54 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 11:49 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henrik Borgstrom C | 12:18 | −0.22 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Alexander Petrovic D | 18:05 | −0.23 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 17:11 | −0.25 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Brouwer R | 17:49 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mark Pysyk D | 16:41 | −0.30 | −0.19 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayce Hawryluk R | 5:55 | −0.47 | −0.07 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 21:25 | 2 | −0.50 | −0.13 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Denis Malgin C | 11:47 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.16 | −0.36 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Roberto Luongo G | 63:24 | +1.02 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.