CGY beat MIN 2–1. CGY lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 2.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Matthew Tkachuk scored at 8:45 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 48% to 79%. David Rittich saved 1.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:03 | CGY | Mark GiordanoSH from Mark Jankowski | 1–0 | 46% → 63% |
| P2 3:30 | MIN | Jordan Greenway from Mikael Granlund | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P3 8:45 | CGY | Matthew Tkachuk from James Neal, TJ Brodie | 2–1 | 48% → 79% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 19:05 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.05 | +0.70 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.02 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 25:00 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.15 | +0.78 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| James Neal L | 13:37 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 13:46 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 22:58 | +0.05 | +0.26 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 9:57 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alan Quine C | 12:08 | +0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Oliver Kylington D | 11:10 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 10:45 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dalton Prout D | 3:48 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 23:47 | −0.09 | +0.18 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 17:15 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 14:55 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 22:13 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 20:30 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 7:48 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 21:51 | −0.40 | −0.07 | −0.38 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 21:27 | −0.48 | −0.06 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 60:00 | +1.49 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Greenway L | 15:10 | 1 | +1.13 | +0.03 | +0.91 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Suter D | 29:49 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 22:32 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Fehr C | 11:12 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 5:37 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 11:34 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 20:19 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| JT Brown R | 7:03 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Hendricks C | 7:43 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 13:27 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Staal C | 19:02 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.07 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 18:12 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 29:20 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Greg Pateryn D | 19:19 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 10:23 | −0.25 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 19:44 | −0.44 | +0.11 | −0.51 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 12:55 | −0.44 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 22:44 | −0.46 | −0.06 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devan Dubnyk G | 57:55 | +0.02 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.