STL beat COL 4–3 in overtime. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ryan O'Reilly scored short-handed at 2:05 of overtime, moving STL’s win probability from 50% to 100%. Philipp Grubauer allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:24 | STL | Colton Parayko from Ryan O'Reilly | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 5:42 |  COL | Sven Andrighetto from J.T. Compher, Tyson Jost | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 9:48 | COL | Matt Calvert from Carl Soderberg, Matt Nieto | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 19:19 | STL | Ivan Barbashev from Jay Bouwmeester, Jaden Schwartz | 2–2 | 35% → 53% |
| P3 11:00 | STL | Colton Parayko from Vince Dunn, Tyler Bozak | 2–3 | 53% → 84% |
| P3 13:10 | COL | J.T. CompherPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen | 3–3 | 15% → 49% |
| OT 2:05 | STL | Ryan O'ReillySH from Robert Bortuzzo | 3–4 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Calvert L | 13:06 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.19 | +0.40 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| J.T. Compher L | 16:12 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.05 | +0.35 | +0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Sven Andrighetto R | 12:34 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.03 | +0.33 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carl Soderberg C | 17:23 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.18 | −0.16 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 16:31 | +0.24 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 14:24 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Johnson D | 20:01 | +0.08 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 25:47 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.17 | −0.36 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Ian Cole D | 22:42 | +0.01 | +0.12 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 12:38 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.11 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrik Nemeth D | 15:46 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 6:00 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 25:19 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.14 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Tyson Barrie D | 23:18 | −0.15 | +0.14 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Bourque L | 7:43 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 14:22 | −0.28 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Wilson C | 13:51 | −0.29 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 23:33 | −0.35 | +0.10 | −0.32 | −0.17 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 61:44 | −1.31 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 24:11 | 1 | 1 | +1.02 | −0.06 | +0.68 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Colton Parayko D | 28:09 | 2 | +0.69 | −0.22 | +0.89 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jay Bouwmeester D | 21:56 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Bozak C | 19:13 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 21:31 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.13 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vince Dunn D | 19:20 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 12:02 | −0.01 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 9:06 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.17 | +0.39 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Jordan Schmaltz D | 11:19 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Nolan C | 5:33 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 9:24 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Butler D | 15:19 | −0.17 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 19:17 | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Steen L | 19:04 | −0.23 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| David Perron L | 13:13 | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 15:42 | −0.25 | +0.11 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 17:27 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 15:00 | −0.31 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 62:05 | +0.87 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.