PIT beat NYI 2–1 in a shootout. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Derick Brassard scored at 2:13 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 22% to 48%. Casey DeSmith saved 4.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 6:32 | NYI | Anthony Beauvillier from Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal | 0–1 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 2:13 | PIT | Derick Brassard from Jake Guentzel | 1–1 | 22% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel C | 21:59 | 1 | +1.34 | +0.27 | −0.26 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +1.06 | |
| Phil Kessel R | 22:46 | +0.49 | +0.23 | −0.37 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.71 | ||
| Derek Grant C | 7:46 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 15:24 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Derick Brassard C | 16:48 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.32 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 22:51 | +0.04 | +0.14 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 20:04 | +0.02 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Garrett Wilson L | 3:50 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 17:33 | −0.00 | +0.24 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 15:14 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 17:50 | −0.05 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 23:56 | −0.05 | +0.20 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.09 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 16:05 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Sebastien Dea C | 7:03 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 15:55 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Riley Sheahan C | 16:51 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 25:56 | −0.41 | +0.22 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 21:57 | −0.43 | +0.21 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.44 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith G | 65:00 | +4.29 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Bailey R | 19:28 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.09 | −0.34 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.75 | |
| Scott Mayfield D | 18:47 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Johnny Boychuk D | 22:13 | −0.03 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 12:20 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 14:07 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 7:26 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 10:47 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 16:46 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.14 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 17:40 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 13:58 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.17 | +0.37 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | |
| Thomas Hickey D | 19:50 | −0.32 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 24:49 | −0.35 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Leo Komarov R | 16:04 | −0.37 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | −0.27 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 19:25 | −0.38 | −0.12 | −0.17 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 24:03 | −0.46 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 21:15 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.30 | |
| Casey Cizikas C | 16:21 | −0.56 | −0.34 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Valtteri Filppula C | 14:54 | −0.61 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.44 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Robin Lehner G | 64:35 | +1.75 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.