LAK beat VGK 5–1. LAK lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Matt Luff scored on the power play at 12:30 of the second, moving LAK’s win probability from 54% to 74%. Marc-Andre Fleury allowed 2.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:23 | VGK | Oscar Lindberg from Tomas Nosek, Ryan Carpenter | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 8:12 | LAK | Nikita Scherbak from Jake Muzzin | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 12:30 | LAK | Matt LuffPP from Brendan Leipsic, Adrian Kempe | 1–2 | 54% → 74% |
| P2 16:46 | LAK | Jeff Carter from Drew Doughty, Derek Forbort | 1–3 | 76% → 91% |
| P3 2:48 | LAK | Derek Forbort from Tyler Toffoli, Michael Amadio | 1–4 | 93% → 99% |
| P3 18:33 | LAK | Nate Thompson from Jake Muzzin, Michael Amadio | 1–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Nosek L | 13:39 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.05 | |
| Oscar Lindberg L | 12:29 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.16 | +0.28 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Carpenter C | 12:03 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.15 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Holden D | 19:41 | +0.02 | +0.12 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 20:58 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 22:54 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Eakin C | 17:03 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 22:32 | −0.14 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 11:11 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.08 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| William Carrier L | 9:19 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 19:37 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Deryk Engelland D | 17:04 | −0.19 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 20:10 | −0.20 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 12:25 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.12 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 16:51 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 17:43 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 14:22 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 19:17 | −0.36 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 60:00 | −2.89 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Muzzin D | 20:55 | 2 | +0.56 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.39 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Forbort D | 22:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.07 | +0.46 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jeff Carter C | 14:29 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.03 | +0.42 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 16:06 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.09 | −0.09 | +0.31 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Thompson C | 12:26 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.04 | +0.46 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Drew Doughty D | 24:53 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.29 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Luff R | 13:50 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.04 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Leipsic L | 13:44 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 13:04 | 2 | +0.16 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.23 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Nikita Scherbak R | 13:32 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.04 | +0.32 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Dustin Brown R | 19:32 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Adrian Kempe R | 14:18 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.09 | −0.04 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Alec Martinez D | 16:28 | +0.12 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Fantenberg D | 17:23 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dion Phaneuf D | 16:57 | −0.13 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Clifford L | 5:48 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 17:01 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 20:52 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quick G | 60:00 | +1.59 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.