CAR beat ANA 4–1. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 4.6 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brett Pesce scored at 1:56 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 48% to 74%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:47 | ANA | Jakob SilfverbergSH from Jake Dotchin | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 1:53 | CAR | Clark Bishop unassisted | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 1:56 | CAR | Brett Pesce from Teuvo Teravainen | 2–1 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 2:57 | CAR | Justin Williams from Clark Bishop, Andrei Svechnikov | 3–1 | 74% → 91% |
| P3 18:46 | CAR | Sebastian AhoEN from Teuvo Teravainen | 4–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clark Bishop C | 11:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.25 | +0.62 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Brett Pesce D | 13:19 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.11 | +0.61 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Williams R | 16:00 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.11 | +0.48 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.36 | +0.02 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 13:37 | +0.16 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 24:04 | +0.15 | +0.17 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Wallmark C | 18:07 | +0.10 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 23:44 | +0.10 | +0.19 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 15:30 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 21:02 | +0.06 | +0.18 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Saku Maenalanen R | 6:49 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 18:22 | 2 | −0.00 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 16:52 | −0.09 | +0.24 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 19:49 | −0.13 | +0.21 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 14:45 | −0.14 | +0.09 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 21:07 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.22 | −0.63 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.04 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 15:29 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.14 | −0.52 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Rask C | 10:10 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 11:15 | −0.32 | +0.05 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 60:00 | +0.84 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 13:55 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.02 | +0.60 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Joshua Mahura D | 15:48 | +0.04 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Dotchin D | 12:53 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Larsson D | 13:26 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Ritchie L | 13:40 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Rowney C | 16:06 | −0.08 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Brian Gibbons C | 12:24 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 23:10 | −0.12 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 13:13 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 21:21 | −0.23 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Aberg L | 15:49 | −0.26 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 25:41 | −0.27 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 12:11 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.36 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 17:44 | −0.29 | −0.17 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 21:17 | −0.34 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.05 | ||
| Ondrej Kase R | 13:27 | −0.36 | −0.15 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Daniel Sprong R | 15:01 | −0.56 | −0.09 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Kesler C | 15:55 | −0.75 | −0.22 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.36 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 58:59 | +0.97 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.