VGK beat WSH 5–3. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nate Schmidt scored on the power play at 18:35 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 52% to 95%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:30 | VGK | Ryan ReavesPP from Cody Eakin, Oscar Lindberg | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 15:33 | WSH | Jakub Vrana from Brett Connolly | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 11:42 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from Brett Connolly, Madison Bowey | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 2:33 | VGK | Pierre-Edouard Bellemare from Brayden McNabb, Nate Schmidt | 2–2 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 2:49 | VGK | Cody Eakin from Oscar Lindberg, Deryk Engelland | 2–3 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 11:40 | WSH | Jakub Vrana from Evgeny Kuznetsov, Matt Niskanen | 3–3 | 16% → 48% |
| P3 18:35 | VGK | Nate SchmidtPP from Shea Theodore | 3–4 | 52% → 95% |
| P3 19:53 | VGK | Nate SchmidtEN unassisted | 3–5 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Vrana L | 13:17 | 2 | +1.55 | +0.05 | +1.50 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 21:57 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.03 | +0.56 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 14:14 | +0.17 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Niskanen D | 22:47 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 21:37 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 17:08 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Christian Djoos D | 11:31 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 10:32 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 23:32 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Madison Bowey D | 11:15 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Connolly R | 15:45 | 2 | −0.24 | +0.16 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitrij Jaskin R | 7:30 | −0.24 | −0.06 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 13:48 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michal Kempny D | 18:05 | −0.29 | −0.28 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devante Smith-Pelly R | 12:09 | −0.35 | −0.22 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 8:28 | −0.35 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| John Carlson D | 26:39 | −0.47 | −0.34 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 19:33 | 1 | −0.63 | +0.02 | −0.41 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Braden Holtby G | 58:57 | −0.96 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 15:46 | 1 | +1.18 | +0.09 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.08 | |
| Cody Eakin C | 16:44 | 1 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.30 | +0.66 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| Nate Schmidt D | 23:38 | 2 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.16 | +0.77 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Holden D | 16:21 | +0.23 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 14:16 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.29 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 17:17 | +0.18 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 10:48 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.12 | +0.27 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Deryk Engelland D | 18:18 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 22:19 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Nosek L | 12:13 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Daniel Carr L | 6:19 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 9:10 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 13:29 | −0.19 | +0.07 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 19:03 | −0.19 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Lindberg L | 13:49 | 2 | −0.20 | +0.28 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Karlsson C | 19:55 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 19:41 | −0.37 | +0.02 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 19:54 | −0.57 | −0.07 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 60:00 | −0.50 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.