TOR beat BUF 4–3 in overtime. TOR also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Auston Matthews scored at 4:57 of overtime, moving TOR’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 8:33 |  TOR | Auston Matthews from Ron Hainsey | 1–0 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 14:01 | BUF | Sam Reinhart from Nathan Beaulieu, Rasmus Ristolainen | 1–1 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 19:50 | TOR | Jake Gardiner from John Tavares, Mitch Marner | 2–1 | 48% → 72% |
| OT 4:57 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Kasperi Kapanen, Jake Gardiner | 3–1 | 48% → 100% |
| P3 2:39 | BUF | Jack Eichel from Rasmus Ristolainen, Jeff Skinner | 3–2 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 12:57 | BUF | Jack Eichel from Sam Reinhart | 3–3 | 51% → 86% |
| P3 14:47 | TOR | Patrick Marleau from Morgan Rielly, Auston Matthews | 4–3 | 12% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews C | 23:22 | 2 | 1 | +0.89 | −0.00 | +0.78 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Jake Gardiner D | 24:48 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.18 | +0.41 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 19:07 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.13 | −0.12 | +0.34 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ron Hainsey D | 20:31 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.13 | −0.04 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Marleau C | 20:20 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.03 | +0.38 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 18:23 | +0.17 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.04 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 25:50 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Dermott D | 18:10 | +0.11 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 16:57 | +0.10 | +0.18 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Igor Ozhiganov D | 13:48 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Par Lindholm C | 6:52 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Frederik Gauthier C | 5:23 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 20:22 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Ennis R | 5:49 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 22:20 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andreas Johnsson L | 12:38 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 14:11 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 22:00 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.38 | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 64:57 | +0.06 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Eichel C | 21:49 | 2 | +0.73 | +0.25 | +0.63 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 21:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.06 | +0.39 | +0.16 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 27:00 | 2 | +0.17 | +0.09 | −0.16 | +0.23 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 15:14 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johan Larsson L | 12:20 | +0.11 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.03 | ||
| Casey Nelson D | 2:39 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawrence Pilut D | 22:49 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 26:34 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 13:27 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 18:32 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.15 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 15:33 | −0.13 | +0.13 | −0.16 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Berglund C | 10:27 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 12:28 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Vladimir Sobotka C | 16:55 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 12:07 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 16:57 | −0.28 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 29:15 | −0.30 | −0.10 | −0.13 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 15:10 | −0.57 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 64:57 | −0.95 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.