PIT beat WPG 4–3. PIT lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 2.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Zachary Aston-Reese scored at 14:48 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 49% to 86%. Connor Hellebuyck allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:01 | WPG | Brandon TanevSH from Ben Chiarot, Adam Lowry | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 18:13 | PIT | Sidney Crosby from Dominik Simon, Jake Guentzel | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 0:39 | WPG | Mark Scheifele from Blake Wheeler, Nikolaj Ehlers | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 4:40 | PIT | Riley Sheahan from Derek Grant, Jamie Oleksiak | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 16:00 | WPG | Mark Scheifele from Blake Wheeler, Nikolaj Ehlers | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 5:08 | PIT | Derek Grant from Garrett Wilson, Olli Maatta | 3–3 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 14:48 | PIT | Zachary Aston-Reese from Phil Kessel, Kris Letang | 4–3 | 49% → 86% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Grant C | 9:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.06 | +0.47 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Riley Sheahan C | 11:58 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.08 | +0.28 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 20:07 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.02 | +0.42 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Garrett Wilson L | 7:41 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Letang D | 25:57 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 15:58 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.08 | +0.32 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 17:30 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Olli Maatta D | 20:25 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 17:58 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Dominik Simon C | 15:40 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phil Kessel R | 16:34 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.06 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Juuso Riikola D | 17:36 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 15:55 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 16:52 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derick Brassard C | 13:54 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 18:06 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 14:14 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 20:01 | −0.26 | +0.08 | −0.04 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith G | 60:00 | −0.72 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Tanev L | 14:45 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.06 | +0.80 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 22:35 | 2 | +0.71 | −0.14 | +0.84 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Blake Wheeler R | 23:11 | 2 | +0.18 | −0.14 | −0.08 | +0.42 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brendan Lemieux L | 4:32 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 19:15 | +0.11 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 20:42 | +0.08 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 15:29 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nic Petan C | 5:09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 16:51 | 2 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 18:45 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 4:51 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 18:02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Perreault C | 15:42 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Morrow D | 15:26 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dustin Byfuglien D | 22:03 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Little C | 18:42 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 21:52 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 22:16 | −0.36 | −0.02 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 57:52 | −1.99 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.