VAN beat LAK 4–2. VAN lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Elias Pettersson scored at 10:23 of the third, moving VAN’s win probability from 48% to 80%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:12 | VAN | Adam Gaudette from Jake Virtanen, Nikolay Goldobin | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 7:23 | LAK | Drew DoughtyPP from Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 12:18 | VAN | Sam GagnerPP from Bo Horvat, Elias Pettersson | 2–1 | 48% → 69% |
| P2 16:35 | LAK | Matt Luff from Carl Hagelin, Adrian Kempe | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 10:23 | VAN | Elias Pettersson unassisted | 3–2 | 48% → 80% |
| P3 18:41 | VAN | Tyler MotteEN unassisted | 4–2 | 93% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Gaudette R | 9:15 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.08 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 14:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.08 | +0.82 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Sam Gagner C | 16:18 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.10 | +0.73 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Alex Biega D | 15:41 | +0.27 | +0.12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Motte C | 12:53 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Tanev D | 20:53 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Leipsic L | 7:33 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reid Boucher C | 5:28 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Virtanen R | 20:17 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 22:19 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Loui Eriksson L | 15:51 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolay Goldobin R | 15:55 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Del Zotto D | 20:11 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 23:56 | −0.22 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Edler D | 16:19 | −0.26 | +0.16 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 16:55 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.21 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Markus Granlund C | 21:56 | −0.39 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Antoine Roussel L | 17:56 | −0.40 | +0.06 | −0.44 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 60:00 | +0.20 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Doughty D | 23:43 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.21 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Luff R | 12:39 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.07 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Anze Kopitar C | 22:58 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 19:03 | +0.07 | +0.17 | −0.30 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 23:13 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dion Phaneuf D | 15:11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Thompson C | 12:24 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Derek Forbort D | 19:49 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 20:28 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.16 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Alex Iafallo L | 16:35 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Hagelin L | 14:13 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Clifford L | 10:34 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Fantenberg D | 12:06 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adrian Kempe R | 14:42 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ilya Kovalchuk L | 13:23 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dustin Brown R | 18:42 | −0.31 | −0.06 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Muzzin D | 21:03 | −0.32 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Wagner L | 8:08 | −0.51 | +0.07 | −0.58 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Petersen G | 58:29 | −0.89 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.