VGK beat ARI 3–2 in overtime. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 1.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Max Pacioretty scored at 3:36 of overtime, moving VGK’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Darcy Kuemper allowed 1.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:08 | ARI | Derek Stepan from Jakob Chychrun | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 5:50 | VGK | Tomas Nosek from Reilly Smith, Brayden McNabb | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 15:51 | VGK | Max Pacioretty from Cody Eakin, Alex Tuch | 2–1 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 13:11 | ARI | Derek StepanPP from Alex Galchenyuk, Clayton Keller | 2–2 | 17% → 51% |
| OT 3:36 | VGK | Max Pacioretty from Shea Theodore | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Pacioretty L | 18:31 | 2 | +1.84 | +0.27 | +1.58 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tomas Nosek L | 8:38 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.03 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 18:36 | +0.50 | +0.43 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 23:48 | +0.20 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 19:09 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.39 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 20:56 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.15 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 14:00 | +0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Deryk Engelland D | 19:40 | −0.00 | +0.13 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hyka R | 8:12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 19:56 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 8:53 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cody Eakin C | 21:30 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.15 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 18:31 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Colin Miller D | 22:08 | −0.12 | +0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 13:47 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 18:26 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| William Karlsson C | 21:28 | −0.17 | +0.11 | −0.29 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| William Carrier L | 11:40 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 63:30 | −0.33 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Stepan C | 20:03 | 2 | +1.19 | −0.34 | +1.59 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Christian Fischer R | 13:18 | +0.27 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 10:32 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Richardson R | 17:36 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 14:50 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Perlini L | 12:23 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Connauton D | 20:02 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Grabner L | 15:32 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 15:50 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 22:05 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niklas Hjalmarsson D | 19:23 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 16:18 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 10:41 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 20:47 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.23 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 20:36 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.23 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 11:58 | −0.34 | +0.04 | −0.41 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Richard Panik R | 20:27 | −0.37 | −0.35 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 26:01 | −0.55 | −0.39 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 63:35 | −1.03 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.