DET beat BOS 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (BOS 2.7, DET 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Andreas Athanasiou scored at 0:49 of overtime, moving DET’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 4:08 |  BOS | Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 9:48 | DET | Tyler Bertuzzi from Nick Jensen, Danny DeKeyser | 1–1 | 32% → 53% |
| P3 6:45 | BOS | Chris Wagner from Sean Kuraly | 2–1 | 48% → 77% |
| P3 8:59 | DET | Andreas Athanasiou from Gustav Nyquist, Frans Nielsen | 2–2 | 21% → 52% |
| OT 0:49 | DET | Andreas Athanasiou from Frans Nielsen | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson C | 9:25 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.12 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Chris Wagner R | 14:13 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.07 | +0.34 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Clifton D | 20:38 | +0.12 | +0.22 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Krejci C | 17:48 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.06 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 22:42 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 14:45 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 21:34 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 14:15 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joakim Nordstrom C | 14:06 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Anders Bjork L | 14:55 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevan Miller D | 21:58 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 16:32 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Backes R | 14:17 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Steven Kampfer D | 14:15 | −0.23 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 18:50 | −0.27 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 17:19 | −0.29 | −0.07 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 16:15 | −0.29 | −0.15 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 18:40 | −0.65 | −0.07 | −0.59 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tuukka Rask G | 60:49 | +0.16 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 14:13 | 2 | +1.67 | +0.26 | +1.43 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 15:58 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.04 | +0.77 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frans Nielsen C | 14:35 | 2 | +0.13 | +0.21 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Niklas Kronwall D | 15:21 | +0.08 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Green D | 22:17 | +0.02 | +0.29 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dennis Cholowski D | 16:00 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Daley D | 18:49 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Vanek L | 10:00 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Frk R | 7:31 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Abdelkader L | 19:52 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob de la Rose L | 11:53 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Danny DeKeyser D | 23:44 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 24:52 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Mantha R | 21:07 | −0.23 | +0.14 | −0.39 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 20:59 | −0.24 | +0.08 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 14:57 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.26 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 15:30 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Rasmussen C | 12:49 | −0.60 | −0.09 | −0.50 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Howard G | 60:49 | +0.89 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.