DET beat NJD 3–2 in overtime. DET lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Dylan Larkin scored at 4:09 of overtime, moving DET’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Jonathan Bernier saved 1.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:35 | NJD | Pavel Zacha from Jesper Bratt | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 15:53 | NJD | Blake ColemanSH from Damon Severson, Andy Greene | 0–2 | 75% → 90% |
| P2 18:26 | DET | Luke Glendening from Dennis Cholowski, Tyler Bertuzzi | 1–2 | 9% → 24% |
| P3 13:37 | DET | Michael Rasmussen from Mike Green, Tyler Bertuzzi | 2–2 | 13% → 49% |
| OT 4:09 | DET | Dylan Larkin from Anthony Mantha | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Rasmussen C | 13:41 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.08 | +0.80 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 21:44 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.21 | +0.43 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 16:29 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.10 | +0.60 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.13 | |
| Danny DeKeyser D | 25:09 | +0.06 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 19:01 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.23 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Darren Helm C | 2:03 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 18:21 | 2 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 24:27 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob de la Rose L | 11:46 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Martin Frk R | 10:08 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Abdelkader L | 18:13 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 19:41 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dennis Cholowski D | 18:47 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Niklas Kronwall D | 16:56 | −0.23 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Daley D | 16:48 | −0.26 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frans Nielsen C | 18:44 | −0.30 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Mike Green D | 19:18 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.06 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 19:11 | −0.84 | −0.41 | −0.40 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Bernier G | 64:09 | +1.62 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Coleman L | 15:18 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.04 | +0.72 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 16:37 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.33 | +0.36 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Marcus Johansson L | 16:27 | +0.46 | +0.44 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 26:16 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.38 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mirco Mueller D | 23:32 | +0.19 | +0.24 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Sebastien Dea C | 12:49 | +0.03 | +0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 14:08 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.22 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Egor Yakovlev D | 15:39 | −0.00 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joey Anderson R | 13:10 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Lovejoy D | 18:48 | −0.15 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Butcher D | 16:18 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Zajac C | 19:26 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 12:30 | −0.24 | +0.09 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 12:30 | −0.30 | +0.11 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Andy Greene D | 24:05 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.11 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Seney L | 11:36 | −0.36 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 19:57 | −0.47 | −0.21 | −0.30 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 17:21 | −0.52 | −0.04 | −0.30 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Keith Kinkaid G | 64:09 | −0.55 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.