DAL beat SJS 4–3. DAL lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Devin Shore scored at 14:13 of the third, moving DAL’s win probability from 51% to 87%. Martin Jones allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:57 | DAL | Devin Shore from Tyler Seguin, Valeri Nichushkin | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 14:18 | SJS | Timo Meier from Kevin Labanc, Logan Couture | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 6:57 | DAL | Tyler Seguin unassisted | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 7:42 | DAL | Gemel Smith from Jason Dickinson, Miro Heiskanen | 1–3 | 73% → 88% |
| P2 11:17 | SJS | Joe Pavelski from Brent Burns, Joe Thornton | 2–3 | 11% → 26% |
| P3 7:46 | SJS | Evander Kane from Brent Burns, Antti Suomela | 3–3 | 19% → 48% |
| P3 14:13 | DAL | Devin Shore from Dillon Heatherington, Blake Comeau | 3–4 | 51% → 87% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timo Meier R | 19:59 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.08 | +0.55 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.36 | +0.00 | |
| Evander Kane L | 19:57 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.12 | +0.66 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Antti Suomela C | 9:44 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Joonas Donskoi R | 13:03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 20:40 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Logan Couture C | 19:47 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 23:51 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 20:26 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joakim Ryan D | 5:21 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rourke Chartier C | 8:37 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 9:52 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Melker Karlsson C | 9:25 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.14 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Sorensen L | 12:44 | −0.12 | −0.21 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Braun D | 20:08 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Thornton C | 18:16 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Brenden Dillon D | 13:56 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 24:48 | 2 | −0.23 | +0.23 | −0.49 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 29:20 | −0.49 | −0.09 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Jones G | 58:06 | −1.46 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Shore C | 13:26 | 2 | +1.57 | +0.07 | +1.52 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Gemel Smith C | 6:11 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.10 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Seguin C | 21:48 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.00 | +0.66 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Roman Polak D | 23:09 | +0.17 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dillon Heatherington D | 8:43 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Denis Gurianov R | 12:02 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 24:24 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 27:46 | −0.03 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 20:52 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 11:30 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Blake Comeau L | 14:45 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 14:43 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Julius Honka D | 15:06 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 16:35 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Spezza C | 14:16 | −0.29 | +0.09 | −0.38 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 18:12 | −0.32 | +0.06 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.04 | ||
| Tyler Pitlick C | 15:23 | −0.35 | +0.02 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 15:09 | −0.44 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Khudobin G | 60:00 | +0.12 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.