VGK beat OTT 5–3. VGK lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: William Carrier scored at 9:16 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 48% to 79%. Craig Anderson allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:26 | VGK | Jonathan MarchessaultPP from Colin Miller, Alex Tuch | 1–0 | 48% → 65% |
| P1 19:40 | VGK | Shea TheodorePP from William Karlsson, Brad Hunt | 2–0 | 66% → 80% |
| P2 17:21 | VGK | Nick Holden from Cody Eakin, Alex Tuch | 3–0 | 88% → 97% |
| P2 17:50 | OTT | Matt Duchene from Thomas Chabot, Mark Stone | 3–1 | 3% → 12% |
| P3 6:57 | OTT | Ryan Dzingel from Mark Borowiecki, Chris Tierney | 3–2 | 6% → 23% |
| P3 8:01 | OTT | Thomas Chabot unassisted | 3–3 | 22% → 52% |
| P3 9:16 | VGK | William Carrier from Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Ryan Reaves | 4–3 | 48% → 79% |
| P3 12:00 | VGK | Pierre-Edouard Bellemare from Colin Miller | 5–3 | 82% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 14:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.07 | +0.42 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Shea Theodore D | 20:24 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.17 | +0.37 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Holden D | 22:11 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.13 | +0.42 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin Miller D | 25:21 | 2 | +0.33 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.41 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Carrier L | 10:13 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.05 | +0.17 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 11:28 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 19:11 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.27 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| William Karlsson C | 18:59 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.02 | −0.06 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Brad Hunt D | 12:25 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 17:23 | 2 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jon Merrill D | 14:45 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 20:13 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Cody Eakin C | 16:56 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 20:43 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hyka R | 8:47 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 8:51 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 10:07 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 23:24 | −0.34 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 60:00 | +0.35 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Dzingel C | 21:06 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.03 | +0.32 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 22:17 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.17 | +0.14 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 18:23 | +0.21 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 14:07 | +0.15 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 28:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.05 | +0.26 | +0.10 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Colin White C | 15:45 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Mark Borowiecki D | 11:30 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.25 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Jaros D | 12:39 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 21:59 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Magnus Paajarvi L | 9:51 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Pyatt L | 10:46 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 21:57 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.18 | −0.35 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 5:40 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Maxime Lajoie D | 14:15 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 21:40 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.11 | +0.17 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Wideman D | 10:00 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Ryan R | 22:25 | −0.35 | −0.06 | −0.29 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikkel Boedker L | 17:53 | −0.37 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 56:55 | −1.91 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.