NSH beat COL 4–1. NSH also won the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Colton Sissons scored at 13:39 of the first, moving NSH’s win probability from 47% to 64%. Pekka Rinne saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:39 | NSH | Colton Sissons from Nick Bonino, Mattias Ekholm | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 17:21 | NSH | Colton Sissons from Roman Josi, Nick Bonino | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 7:08 | COL | Matt CalvertPP from Samuel Girard, Nathan MacKinnon | 2–1 | 18% → 33% |
| P2 19:57 | NSH | Colton SissonsPP from Kyle Turris, Kevin Fiala | 3–1 | 73% → 89% |
| P3 17:06 | NSH | Ryan HartmanEN from Nick Bonino, P.K. Subban | 4–1 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colton Sissons C | 19:22 | 3 | +2.39 | +0.14 | +2.23 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 23:05 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 16:51 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.15 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Ellis D | 22:09 | +0.11 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 17:39 | +0.09 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| P.K. Subban D | 22:52 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.16 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yannick Weber D | 12:58 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zac Rinaldo C | 9:28 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 9:16 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 17:22 | 3 | −0.10 | +0.14 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 17:33 | −0.12 | +0.11 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 13:02 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 17:32 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Turris C | 15:16 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Anthony Bitetto D | 12:56 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 13:58 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Miikka Salomaki R | 9:09 | −0.29 | +0.06 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 24:55 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pekka Rinne G | 59:46 | +1.11 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Calvert L | 15:52 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.06 | +0.74 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Gabriel Bourque L | 8:15 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 19:27 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 13:58 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 17:16 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marko Dano C | 6:59 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 19:56 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Nieto L | 13:51 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Soderberg C | 15:08 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 21:20 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 22:39 | −0.19 | −0.14 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 20:12 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sheldon Dries C | 13:04 | −0.24 | +0.08 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Colin Wilson C | 14:22 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 17:25 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Kamenev C | 7:39 | −0.42 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.05 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 24:28 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.17 | −0.45 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.03 | |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 23:59 | −0.46 | −0.16 | −0.39 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 59:36 | −0.48 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.