CGY beat CHI 5–3. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 1.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Michael Frolik scored at 15:05 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 51% to 89%. David Rittich allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:46 | CGY | Sean MonahanPP from Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 13:57 | CHI | Jonathan ToewsPP from Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook | 1–1 | 34% → 48% |
| P1 19:33 | CHI | Jan Rutta from Andreas Martinsen, Alexandre Fortin | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 12:41 | CHI | Brandon Saad from Alex DeBrincat, Henri Jokiharju | 3–1 | 69% → 86% |
| P2 18:26 | CGY | Matthew Tkachuk from Travis Hamonic, Mikael Backlund | 3–2 | 11% → 28% |
| P3 13:59 | CGY | Sean Monahan from Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm | 3–3 | 15% → 51% |
| P3 15:05 | CGY | Michael Frolik from Sam Bennett, Noah Hanifin | 3–4 | 51% → 89% |
| P3 19:01 | CGY | Mikael BacklundEN from Elias Lindholm | 3–5 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Rutta D | 16:56 | 1 | +0.90 | −0.01 | +0.91 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 19:14 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.33 | +0.76 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Toews C | 18:55 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.32 | +0.70 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Brent Seabrook D | 26:48 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.36 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kunitz L | 8:03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Kruger C | 13:45 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Brandon Manning D | 21:34 | −0.11 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 10:59 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Alexandre Fortin L | 10:29 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dominik Kahun C | 12:17 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Duncan Keith D | 0:37 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 19:53 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andreas Martinsen L | 8:52 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Artem Anisimov C | 18:09 | −0.29 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 18:24 | −0.35 | −0.21 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Erik Gustafsson D | 25:07 | −0.40 | −0.35 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 25:29 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.31 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 17:33 | 1 | −0.59 | −0.35 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Corey Crawford G | 58:09 | −0.77 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Monahan C | 22:30 | 2 | +2.09 | +0.46 | +1.44 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 19:36 | 1 | +1.06 | +0.23 | +0.75 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 20:07 | +0.51 | +0.51 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 22:18 | 2 | +0.43 | +0.48 | −0.19 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Frolik R | 13:12 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.06 | +0.56 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Dillon Dube C | 0:14 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 18:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.16 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| Elias Lindholm C | 22:27 | 3 | +0.08 | +0.61 | −0.53 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 13:26 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 24:02 | −0.03 | +0.49 | −0.38 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 20:11 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Ryan C | 13:18 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 5:28 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 13:46 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 8:00 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 15:06 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Hamonic D | 22:24 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| James Neal L | 18:07 | −0.33 | −0.03 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 60:00 | −1.73 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.