VAN beat COL 7–6 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (COL 2.6, VAN 2.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Elias Pettersson scored on the power play at 19:24 of the third, moving VAN’s win probability from 4% to 51%. Philipp Grubauer allowed 3.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:58 | VAN | Brock Boeser from Elias Pettersson | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 1:38 | COL | Sheldon Dries from Alexander Kerfoot, Colin Wilson | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 5:18 | VAN | Brock Boeser from Elias Pettersson, Nikolay Goldobin | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 6:08 | COL | Ian Cole from Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 8:47 | VAN | Loui Eriksson from Erik Gudbranson, Brendan Gaunce | 2–3 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 10:32 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Mikko Rantanen, Tyson Barrie | 3–3 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 12:36 | COL | Alexander Kerfoot from Samuel Girard, Colin Wilson | 4–3 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 17:33 | VAN | Elias Pettersson from Antoine Roussel, Troy Stecher | 4–4 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 1:30 | COL | Nikita Zadorov from Gabriel Bourque | 5–4 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 10:02 | VAN | Markus GranlundPP from Nikolay Goldobin, Ben Hutton | 5–5 | 21% → 52% |
| P3 18:23 | COL | Nathan MacKinnonPP from Gabriel Landeskog, Mikko Rantanen | 6–5 | 51% → 94% |
| P3 19:24 | VAN | Elias PetterssonPP from Bo Horvat, Brock Boeser | 6–6 | 4% → 51% |
| OT 4:38 | VAN | Derrick PouliotPP from Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser | 6–7 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 23:56 | 2 | 1 | +1.07 | +0.15 | +1.10 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.08 |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 19:51 | 1 | +1.04 | +0.15 | +0.90 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 15:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.08 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 |
| Ian Cole D | 22:36 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.11 | +0.88 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Sheldon Dries C | 13:32 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.05 | +0.50 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 24:44 | 3 | +0.23 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 22:48 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.28 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Barrie D | 19:40 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| A.J. Greer L | 5:06 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Kamenev C | 7:26 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 17:22 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Calvert L | 16:32 | −0.05 | +0.19 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 13:35 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Soderberg C | 15:40 | −0.07 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Colin Wilson C | 13:31 | 2 | −0.16 | +0.10 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Gabriel Bourque L | 13:30 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Johnson D | 19:10 | −0.26 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 23:45 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.35 | −0.82 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 64:38 | −3.69 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Pettersson C | 22:45 | 2 | 3 | +2.00 | +0.32 | +1.40 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.04 |
| Brock Boeser R | 21:07 | 2 | 2 | +1.14 | +0.21 | +0.93 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Derrick Pouliot D | 25:26 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.38 | +0.62 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Loui Eriksson L | 13:50 | 1 | +0.89 | −0.05 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Markus Granlund C | 15:01 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.13 | +0.71 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Nikolay Goldobin R | 15:46 | 2 | +0.09 | +0.17 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Antoine Roussel L | 12:22 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Adam Gaudette R | 8:29 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tyler Motte C | 15:32 | −0.05 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gaunce C | 8:18 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Alex Biega D | 12:35 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Del Zotto D | 14:14 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Virtanen R | 16:51 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tim Schaller L | 17:35 | −0.16 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 19:32 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Hutton D | 25:07 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.28 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 22:07 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 25:01 | 1 | −0.47 | +0.06 | −0.44 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.11 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 64:11 | −2.98 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.