STL beat VGK 5–3. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Oskar Sundqvist scored at 6:29 of the second, moving STL’s win probability from 53% to 73%. Marc-Andre Fleury allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:02 | STL | Oskar Sundqvist from Robert Thomas, Robby Fabbri | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 6:29 | VGK | Pierre-Edouard Bellemare unassisted | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 3:11 | STL | Vladimir TarasenkoPP from Tyler Bozak, Patrick Maroon | 1–2 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 3:34 | VGK | Erik Haula from Shea Theodore, Alex Tuch | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 6:29 | STL | Oskar Sundqvist from Robert Thomas | 2–3 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 14:49 | STL | Colton Parayko from Ryan O'Reilly, Zachary Sanford | 2–4 | 75% → 90% |
| P3 8:02 | VGK | Alex TuchPP from Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson | 3–4 | 5% → 19% |
| P3 11:47 | STL | Tyler Bozak from Joel Edmundson | 3–5 | 85% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Haula L | 17:41 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.12 | +0.62 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 13:56 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.02 | +0.63 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 18:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.11 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Tomas Hyka R | 14:14 | +0.26 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 18:37 | +0.11 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 19:31 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:39 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 12:49 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 11:02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 23:32 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Deryk Engelland D | 17:48 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 11:50 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 12:13 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 17:27 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 19:11 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.03 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| William Karlsson C | 19:08 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.07 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Brad Hunt D | 16:44 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Eakin C | 12:15 | −0.53 | −0.08 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 56:59 | −2.20 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 11:29 | 2 | +1.73 | +0.04 | +1.70 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 23:20 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.05 | +0.81 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Bozak C | 17:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.08 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 16:01 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.03 | +0.34 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 19:52 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 9:28 | 2 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Carl Gunnarsson D | 13:52 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 11:44 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Steen L | 15:36 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.03 | ||
| David Perron L | 15:33 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Sanford L | 13:10 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Edmundson D | 20:20 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jay Bouwmeester D | 19:35 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 8:45 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 25:10 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 16:03 | −0.24 | +0.05 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 18:22 | −0.32 | −0.03 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 18:21 | −0.38 | −0.03 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 60:00 | +0.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.