MTL beat WSH 6–4. MTL also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Max Domi scored at 19:38 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 51% to 97%. Carey Price allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:28 | MTL | Jesperi Kotkaniemi from Joel Armia | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 6:16 | WSH | Lars Eller from Matt Niskanen, Chandler Stephenson | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P2 0:32 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Tomas Tatar | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 3:06 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Tomas Tatar, Phillip Danault | 1–3 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 6:49 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from Evgeny Kuznetsov, Jakub Vrana | 2–3 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 7:59 | WSH | Lars Eller from Brett Connolly | 3–3 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 12:53 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from Dmitry Orlov, Matt Niskanen | 4–3 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 16:56 | MTL | Jesperi Kotkaniemi from Artturi Lehkonen, Victor Mete | 4–4 | 10% → 51% |
| P3 19:38 | MTL | Max Domi from Jeff Petry | 4–5 | 51% → 97% |
| P3 19:40 | MTL | Joel ArmiaEN from Phillip Danault | 4–6 | 98% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Eller C | 15:38 | 2 | +1.25 | −0.20 | +1.62 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.03 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 18:35 | 2 | +1.00 | −0.30 | +1.33 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Djoos D | 11:59 | +0.13 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Madison Bowey D | 9:41 | +0.11 | +0.15 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| T.J. Oshie R | 19:25 | +0.02 | +0.11 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dmitrij Jaskin R | 8:22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Niskanen D | 24:59 | 2 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Andre Burakovsky L | 15:01 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devante Smith-Pelly R | 11:16 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 11:28 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 25:43 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 13:44 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.16 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 19:32 | −0.28 | +0.03 | −0.41 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Michal Kempny D | 21:41 | −0.34 | −0.30 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 24:04 | −0.35 | −0.27 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Connolly R | 11:46 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.21 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakub Vrana L | 15:21 | 1 | −0.50 | −0.21 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 15:47 | 1 | −0.51 | −0.23 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Braden Holtby G | 59:58 | −0.90 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 15:42 | 2 | +1.41 | +0.01 | +1.47 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 15:22 | 2 | +1.00 | +0.16 | +0.84 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Domi C | 18:29 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.12 | +0.34 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.11 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 16:43 | 2 | +0.27 | +0.24 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.04 | |
| Jordie Benn D | 19:30 | +0.17 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Xavier Ouellet D | 20:52 | +0.15 | +0.21 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Mete D | 17:05 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.23 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Peca C | 10:33 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 22:42 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.17 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 11:45 | −0.00 | +0.13 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 14:59 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.37 | −0.41 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 19:46 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 16:11 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 13:38 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Drouin L | 18:29 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Andrew Shaw R | 12:07 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 15:03 | 1 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Charles Hudon L | 17:04 | −0.27 | +0.23 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carey Price G | 60:00 | −1.25 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.