SJS beat ANA 4–3 in overtime. SJS also won the expected-goals battle 5.1 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Timo Meier scored at 2:12 of overtime, moving SJS’s win probability from 48% to 100%. John Gibson saved 1.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:34 |  SJS | Logan Couture from Brent Burns, Tomas Hertl | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 4:16 | ANA | Josh Manson from Ryan Getzlaf, Adam Henrique | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 2:13 | SJS | Rourke Chartier from Tomas Hertl, Timo Meier | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 4:10 | SJS | Timo Meier from Logan Couture, Erik Karlsson | 3–1 | 67% → 82% |
| P2 16:59 | ANA | Pontus Aberg from Ryan Getzlaf, Andy Welinski | 3–2 | 12% → 29% |
| P3 8:36 | ANA | Pontus Aberg unassisted | 3–3 | 21% → 52% |
| OT 2:12 | SJS | Timo Meier from Joonas Donskoi | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timo Meier R | 14:49 | 2 | 1 | +1.60 | +0.24 | +1.16 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Logan Couture C | 20:15 | 1 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.13 | +0.87 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Rourke Chartier C | 10:17 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.03 | +0.62 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brenden Dillon D | 15:44 | +0.09 | +0.23 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Braun D | 19:53 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 25:19 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 8:44 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 19:09 | −0.13 | +0.17 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marcus Sorensen L | 12:44 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joakim Ryan D | 11:29 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 22:43 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 21:05 | 2 | −0.17 | +0.39 | −0.52 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Melker Karlsson C | 13:19 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.20 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 12:35 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 25:18 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.39 | −0.62 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joonas Donskoi R | 15:00 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Antti Suomela C | 11:24 | −0.34 | +0.02 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 21:47 | −0.45 | +0.43 | −0.91 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Jones G | 60:00 | −0.27 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontus Aberg L | 15:01 | 2 | +1.82 | −0.04 | +1.70 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Manson D | 21:12 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.03 | +0.71 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Isac Lundeström C | 10:35 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 10:03 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joseph Blandisi C | 9:26 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Larsson D | 11:42 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Gibbons C | 12:24 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 18:23 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Andy Welinski D | 9:32 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Steel C | 12:46 | −0.23 | −0.10 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Ryan Kesler C | 15:36 | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 30:08 | −0.42 | −0.28 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 26:10 | −0.45 | −0.21 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 21:40 | −0.48 | −0.38 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 22:10 | −0.50 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 19:39 | −0.58 | −0.28 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 12:59 | −0.61 | −0.10 | −0.52 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 21:10 | 2 | −0.73 | −0.36 | −0.39 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 62:12 | +1.05 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.