VGK beat OTT 4–3 in overtime. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 5.2 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jonathan Marchessault scored on the power play at 2:24 of overtime, moving VGK’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Marc-Andre Fleury allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:08 | OTT | Matt Duchene from Ryan Dzingel, Cody Ceci | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 8:52 | OTT | Bobby RyanPP from Mark Stone, Thomas Chabot | 2–0 | 69% → 84% |
| P2 15:14 | VGK | Alex Tuch from Erik Haula | 2–1 | 13% → 30% |
| P2 18:21 | VGK | Ryan ReavesPP from Colin Miller, Erik Haula | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 7:49 | OTT | Ryan Dzingel from Chris Wideman, Thomas Chabot | 3–2 | 49% → 78% |
| P3 8:17 | VGK | Alex Tuch from Nick Holden | 3–3 | 22% → 52% |
| OT 2:24 | VGK | Jonathan MarchessaultPP unassisted | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Dzingel C | 19:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.14 | +0.85 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.02 |
| Bobby Ryan R | 16:01 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.12 | +0.50 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 21:59 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.41 | +0.55 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Alex Formenton L | 9:46 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mark Borowiecki D | 3:25 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 20:58 | −0.12 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max McCormick L | 5:37 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Wideman D | 11:50 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Mikkel Boedker L | 16:29 | −0.22 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Jaros D | 13:49 | −0.29 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Pyatt L | 13:36 | −0.33 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Magnus Paajarvi L | 15:24 | −0.35 | −0.13 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 21:17 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.48 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 25:02 | 2 | −0.41 | −0.37 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin White C | 13:56 | −0.44 | −0.07 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 19:06 | −0.48 | −0.37 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Maxime Lajoie D | 23:13 | −0.49 | −0.48 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 22:59 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.50 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 62:19 | +1.09 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Tuch R | 19:53 | 2 | +2.08 | +0.63 | +1.22 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.02 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 11:48 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.17 | +0.57 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Deryk Engelland D | 21:12 | +0.45 | +0.50 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 16:38 | +0.43 | +0.24 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 23:42 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.42 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Cody Eakin C | 2:41 | +0.19 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 24:52 | +0.16 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 21:15 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.35 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Haula L | 19:46 | 2 | +0.06 | +0.53 | −0.45 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Holden D | 15:19 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 26:43 | −0.03 | +0.18 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Lindberg L | 9:44 | −0.06 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 12:17 | −0.07 | +0.16 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 13:00 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| William Carrier L | 11:03 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 11:17 | −0.27 | +0.20 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tomas Hyka R | 15:00 | −0.28 | +0.38 | −0.65 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 25:39 | −0.78 | +0.10 | −0.88 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 62:24 | −1.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.