COL beat NJD 5–3. Expected goals were close to even (COL 2.6, NJD 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Gabriel Landeskog scored at 16:38 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 49% to 90%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:42 | NJD | Nico HischierPP from Travis Zajac, Taylor Hall | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 1:17 | COL | Sven Andrighetto from Alexander Kerfoot, Ian Cole | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 7:08 | COL | Gabriel LandeskogPP from Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon | 2–1 | 48% → 67% |
| P2 15:42 | NJD | Taylor HallPP from Andy Greene, Nico Hischier | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 6:22 | NJD | Brian BoylePP from Kyle Palmieri, Taylor Hall | 2–3 | 53% → 80% |
| P3 8:08 | COL | Gabriel Landeskog from Ian Cole, Mikko Rantanen | 3–3 | 19% → 48% |
| P3 16:38 | COL | Gabriel Landeskog from Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon | 4–3 | 49% → 90% |
| P3 19:47 | COL | Mikko RantanenEN from Nathan MacKinnon, Erik Johnson | 5–3 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 19:53 | 3 | +2.07 | −0.28 | +2.32 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sven Andrighetto R | 10:33 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.01 | +0.46 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Patrik Nemeth D | 20:24 | +0.07 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 21:37 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 14:22 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.04 | ||
| Matt Calvert L | 13:15 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 15:47 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.12 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Vladislav Kamenev C | 12:36 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Colin Wilson C | 12:09 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 15:40 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 20:14 | 1 | 3 | −0.19 | −0.25 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 |
| Samuel Girard D | 17:47 | −0.19 | +0.08 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 17:29 | 2 | −0.22 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Barrie D | 17:37 | −0.25 | −0.20 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Bourque L | 11:59 | −0.31 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Soderberg C | 16:58 | −0.32 | +0.06 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 13:05 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 21:42 | 3 | −0.62 | −0.28 | −0.35 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 59:57 | −0.20 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Boyle C | 13:11 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.02 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 19:28 | 1 | 2 | +0.78 | +0.02 | +0.75 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Nico Hischier C | 18:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.13 | +0.44 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Jean-Sebastien Dea C | 13:39 | +0.31 | +0.25 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.03 | ||
| Mirco Mueller D | 19:05 | +0.26 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 15:55 | +0.17 | +0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andy Greene D | 24:03 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.09 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Stefan Noesen R | 11:56 | +0.12 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ben Lovejoy D | 15:43 | +0.06 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 19:03 | −0.00 | +0.15 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Butcher D | 19:13 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Zajac C | 9:20 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 17:50 | −0.13 | +0.13 | −0.48 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.04 | ||
| Drew Stafford R | 9:53 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 11:34 | −0.25 | +0.08 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 15:59 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.11 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 | |
| Sami Vatanen D | 18:28 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 15:43 | −0.49 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Keith Kinkaid G | 58:49 | −0.92 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.