CGY beat COL 3–2 in overtime. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Johnny Gaudreau scored at 0:46 of overtime, moving CGY’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:11 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 2:40 | COL | J.T. Compher from Tyson Barrie, Ian Cole | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P2 10:52 | CGY | Sam Bennett from Mikael Backlund, Michael Stone | 1–2 | 11% → 26% |
| P3 18:06 | CGY | Elias LindholmPP unassisted | 2–2 | 7% → 50% |
| OT 0:46 | CGY | Johnny Gaudreau from Sean Monahan, TJ Brodie | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Lindholm C | 18:54 | 1 | +1.24 | +0.24 | +0.80 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.05 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 15:20 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.10 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 21:41 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.42 | −0.11 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 24:16 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.21 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 19:16 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.41 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 26:58 | +0.15 | +0.32 | −0.22 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James Neal L | 16:42 | +0.12 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Stone D | 13:50 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 14:36 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 19:20 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Juuso Välimäki D | 13:14 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 8:17 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 9:48 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 20:22 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Czarnik C | 11:20 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 10:51 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 12:12 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 19:27 | −0.51 | +0.30 | −0.69 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 60:40 | +0.27 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. Compher L | 13:44 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.02 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 22:25 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.30 | +0.52 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 17:17 | +0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Kamenev C | 7:51 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Matt Calvert L | 14:04 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 11:59 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Gabriel Bourque L | 11:50 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Colin Wilson C | 11:51 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 13:36 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 21:25 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ian Cole D | 17:51 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Patrik Nemeth D | 19:49 | −0.23 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 19:45 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.27 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 19:35 | −0.28 | −0.28 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 21:36 | −0.32 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 20:05 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.12 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Nieto L | 14:27 | −0.42 | −0.42 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Soderberg C | 15:33 | −0.87 | −0.29 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.36 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 60:21 | +0.26 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.