CAR beat MIN 5–4 in overtime. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 4.5 to 1.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Sebastian Aho scored at 2:57 of overtime, moving CAR’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Curtis McElhinney allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:12 | CAR | Jordan Staal from Trevor van Riemsdyk, Justin Williams | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 16:09 |  MIN | Charlie CoylePP from Jared Spurgeon, Mathew Dumba | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 15:13 | CAR | Brett Pesce from Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 1:20 | MIN | Jared Spurgeon from Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise | 2–2 | 28% → 52% |
| P3 5:41 | MIN | Jason ZuckerPP from Mikael Granlund, Ryan Suter | 2–3 | 53% → 81% |
| P3 9:22 | CAR | Sebastian AhoPP from Justin Faulk, Teuvo Teravainen | 3–3 | 18% → 48% |
| P3 15:47 | MIN | Mikael Granlund from Zach Parise | 3–4 | 51% → 90% |
| P3 18:51 | CAR | Justin WilliamsPP from Justin Faulk, Sebastian Aho | 4–4 | 5% → 50% |
| OT 2:57 | CAR | Sebastian Aho from Justin Williams, Brett Pesce | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho C | 20:45 | 2 | 2 | +1.97 | +0.51 | +1.31 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.05 |
| Jordan Staal C | 23:25 | 1 | +1.13 | +0.39 | +0.56 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.04 | |
| Brett Pesce D | 18:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.19 | +0.77 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Justin Williams R | 20:41 | 1 | 2 | +0.77 | +0.35 | +0.22 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 21:50 | 2 | +0.28 | +0.46 | −0.39 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Warren Foegele L | 11:24 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 11:40 | +0.09 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 12:37 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Valentin Zykov L | 4:43 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 13:52 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.10 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 24:56 | −0.10 | +0.14 | −0.26 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 23:10 | −0.11 | +0.22 | −0.34 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 12:22 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Wallmark C | 13:17 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Micheal Ferland L | 16:30 | −0.23 | +0.37 | −0.58 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 14:07 | −0.24 | −0.18 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 14:27 | −0.51 | +0.13 | −0.31 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 21:37 | 2 | −0.60 | +0.25 | −0.67 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Curtis McElhinney G | 61:57 | −1.91 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikael Granlund C | 15:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.84 | −0.18 | +0.79 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.03 |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 23:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.24 | +0.65 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Jason Zucker L | 16:29 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.13 | +0.56 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie Coyle C | 15:47 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.01 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.36 | −0.02 | |
| Mathew Dumba D | 23:02 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.11 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Parise L | 16:27 | 2 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Nino Niederreiter R | 13:38 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 11:49 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 11:21 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 28:21 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.34 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 22:55 | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 10:25 | −0.33 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Fehr C | 16:43 | −0.35 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Hendricks C | 8:17 | −0.35 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Greg Pateryn D | 13:40 | −0.36 | −0.33 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JT Brown R | 6:27 | −0.40 | −0.06 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Staal C | 14:24 | −0.40 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Mikko Koivu C | 19:56 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.53 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devan Dubnyk G | 62:57 | +0.40 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.