TOR beat DET 5–3. TOR also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 3.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mitch Marner scored at 2:00 of the second, moving TOR’s win probability from 47% to 66%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:18 | DET | Nick Jensen from Darren Helm, Christoffer Ehn | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 15:48 |  TOR | Morgan Rielly from Mitch Marner, John Tavares | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 2:00 | TOR | Mitch Marner from Zach Hyman, John Tavares | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 7:30 | TOR | Auston MatthewsPP from Morgan Rielly, Nazem Kadri | 3–1 | 68% → 83% |
| P3 10:18 | DET | Nick Jensen from Luke Glendening, Anthony Mantha | 3–2 | 4% → 20% |
| P3 11:11 | TOR | Auston MatthewsPP from Nazem Kadri, John Tavares | 4–2 | 82% → 96% |
| P3 13:56 | DET | Dylan Larkin from Tyler Bertuzzi, Filip Hronek | 4–3 | 2% → 15% |
| P3 19:39 | TOR | Ron HainseyEN from John Tavares, Nikita Zaitsev | 5–3 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews C | 19:35 | 2 | +1.22 | +0.01 | +1.36 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.02 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 22:05 | 1 | 1 | +1.06 | +0.22 | +0.83 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mitch Marner R | 18:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.20 | +0.44 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Par Lindholm C | 16:35 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.36 | +0.03 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 12:41 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Marincin D | 14:06 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederik Gauthier C | 6:27 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Ennis R | 8:17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ron Hainsey D | 22:01 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 16:14 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Brown R | 14:39 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Leivo L | 7:24 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Gardiner D | 19:42 | −0.18 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 18:35 | 4 | −0.20 | +0.16 | −0.37 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 17:49 | −0.23 | −0.10 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 24:17 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Marleau C | 17:00 | −0.24 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 16:05 | 2 | −0.35 | +0.14 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 59:52 | −0.71 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Jensen D | 21:20 | 2 | +1.32 | −0.08 | +1.38 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 22:17 | 1 | +1.07 | −0.00 | +0.87 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Gustav Nyquist R | 17:01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 16:51 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Thomas Vanek L | 17:58 | +0.06 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christoffer Ehn C | 9:47 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Joe Hicketts D | 15:10 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 18:44 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Darren Helm C | 9:55 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Michael Rasmussen C | 10:24 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Justin Abdelkader L | 13:34 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Danny DeKeyser D | 18:25 | −0.26 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 16:16 | −0.30 | +0.13 | −0.40 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 17:51 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.08 | −0.40 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Niklas Kronwall D | 22:16 | −0.30 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 12:42 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.05 | −0.24 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frans Nielsen C | 16:31 | −0.37 | −0.08 | −0.32 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Libor Sulak D | 16:44 | −0.50 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Howard G | 58:37 | −0.58 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.