NYR beat SJS 3–2 in overtime. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brady Skjei scored at 0:37 of overtime, moving NYR’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Henrik Lundqvist saved 1.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:31 |  SJS | Marcus SorensenSH from Timo Meier, Brent Burns | 1–0 | 46% → 62% |
| P1 13:52 | NYR | Brett Howden from Mats Zuccarello, Chris Kreider | 1–1 | 36% → 54% |
| P2 4:59 | SJS | Joonas Donskoi from Antti Suomela, Brent Burns | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P3 17:21 | NYR | Brendan Smith from Pavel Buchnevich, Jesper Fast | 2–2 | 9% → 51% |
| OT 0:37 | NYR | Brady Skjei unassisted | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Sorensen L | 12:01 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.07 | +0.65 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Joonas Donskoi R | 12:42 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.07 | +0.55 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Joakim Ryan D | 10:31 | +0.07 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 15:18 | +0.05 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 18:22 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Antti Suomela C | 10:54 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 20:45 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 19:21 | −0.12 | +0.10 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Melker Karlsson C | 11:05 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.14 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 16:52 | −0.13 | +0.06 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 26:26 | −0.13 | +0.08 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 11:16 | −0.13 | +0.10 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Braun D | 21:37 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rourke Chartier C | 8:33 | −0.20 | +0.09 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 21:06 | −0.24 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 24:02 | 2 | −0.28 | +0.22 | −0.53 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timo Meier R | 17:16 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.22 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Joe Pavelski C | 17:50 | −0.39 | +0.20 | −0.61 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Dell G | 60:31 | −0.16 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Howden C | 17:34 | 1 | +0.95 | −0.02 | +0.78 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.03 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 24:24 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.05 | +0.73 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Smith D | 18:09 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.04 | +0.79 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 15:54 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Vinni Lettieri C | 11:58 | +0.01 | +0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Filip Chytil C | 11:06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam McQuaid D | 18:12 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 16:47 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 16:25 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fredrik Claesson D | 18:56 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 15:54 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.07 | −0.21 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Spooner C | 12:23 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 14:50 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jimmy Vesey L | 14:44 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 11:08 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.32 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 17:57 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.07 | −0.34 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Tony DeAngelo D | 20:32 | −0.44 | −0.22 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 16:58 | −0.64 | −0.03 | −0.41 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Henrik Lundqvist G | 60:37 | +1.92 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.