TOR beat CHI 7–6 in overtime. TOR also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Morgan Rielly scored at 0:19 of overtime, moving TOR’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Garret Sparks allowed 3.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:00 | CHI | Jonathan Toews from Dominik Kahun, Duncan Keith | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 12:02 | CHI | Alex DeBrincat from Dominik Kahun, Duncan Keith | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P1 14:09 | TOR | Kasperi Kapanen from Auston Matthews | 1–2 | 16% → 29% |
| P1 14:43 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Kasperi Kapanen | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 3:56 | TOR | John Tavares from Zach Hyman, Morgan Rielly | 3–2 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 5:37 | CHI | John Hayden from Henri Jokiharju, Duncan Keith | 3–3 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 7:37 | TOR | John TavaresPP from Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly | 4–3 | 48% → 68% |
| P3 2:20 | CHI | Brandon Manning from Brent Seabrook, Chris Kunitz | 4–4 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 9:29 | TOR | John Tavares from Mitch Marner | 5–4 | 48% → 79% |
| P3 18:36 | CHI | Patrick KanePP from Henri Jokiharju, Nick Schmaltz | 5–5 | 7% → 50% |
| P3 18:58 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Patrick Marleau, Jake Gardiner | 6–5 | 50% → 95% |
| P3 19:31 | CHI | Patrick KanePP from Henri Jokiharju, Nick Schmaltz | 6–6 | 5% → 51% |
| OT 0:19 | TOR | Morgan Rielly from Patrick Marleau, Auston Matthews | 7–6 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Tavares C | 21:12 | 3 | +2.07 | +0.15 | +2.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.05 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 16:53 | 2 | 2 | +1.66 | +0.13 | +1.48 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Morgan Rielly D | 20:13 | 1 | 2 | +0.96 | +0.26 | +0.68 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 14:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.23 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Zach Hyman L | 20:52 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.14 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Martin Marincin D | 14:58 | +0.12 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 14:26 | +0.11 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ron Hainsey D | 23:24 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Gardiner D | 20:34 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 19:32 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.14 | −0.32 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Marleau C | 16:52 | 2 | +0.04 | +0.11 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 13:43 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Par Lindholm C | 11:40 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 24:22 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Johnsson L | 7:28 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 14:38 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Josh Leivo L | 10:42 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Ennis R | 8:29 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Garret Sparks G | 60:19 | −3.71 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Kane R | 22:06 | 2 | +1.13 | −0.16 | +1.46 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Manning D | 15:21 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.27 | +0.92 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 18:14 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.16 | +0.81 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| John Hayden C | 9:36 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.06 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Toews C | 19:16 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.26 | +0.47 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Duncan Keith D | 22:32 | 3 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Kruger C | 10:10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 20:10 | 3 | −0.03 | +0.14 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kunitz L | 10:58 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 21:57 | 2 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| David Kampf C | 12:09 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Luke Johnson C | 8:55 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 19:47 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gustafsson D | 21:18 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Anisimov C | 16:37 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brent Seabrook D | 17:48 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.32 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dominik Kahun C | 15:11 | 2 | −0.32 | −0.12 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 17:56 | −0.48 | −0.13 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward G | 58:43 | −3.60 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.