PIT beat WSH 7–6 in overtime. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 5.0 to 2.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kris Letang scored on the power play at 1:20 of overtime, moving PIT’s win probability from 54% to 100%. Matt Murray allowed 2.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:49 |  PIT | Jamie Oleksiak from Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 3:30 | WSH | Jakub Vrana from Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 4:18 | WSH | Brooks Orpik unassisted | 2–1 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 7:27 | PIT | Jake GuentzelPP from Daniel Sprong, Justin Schultz | 2–2 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 8:00 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from Christian Djoos, Evgeny Kuznetsov | 3–2 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 0:30 | PIT | Kris Letang from Sidney Crosby, Brian Dumoulin | 3–3 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 3:54 | WSH | John Carlson from Brett Connolly | 4–3 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 15:09 | PIT | Jake Guentzel from Justin Schultz, Patric Hornqvist | 4–4 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 16:58 | PIT | Derick Brassard from Dominik Simon, Brian Dumoulin | 4–5 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 2:45 | PIT | Evgeni Malkin from Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby | 4–6 | 79% → 93% |
| P3 13:01 | WSH | T.J. Oshie unassisted | 5–6 | 2% → 14% |
| P3 13:22 | WSH | T.J. Oshie from John Carlson | 6–6 | 14% → 49% |
| OT 1:20 | PIT | Kris LetangPP from Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel | 6–7 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Oshie R | 18:31 | 2 | 1 | +1.33 | −0.15 | +1.48 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Brooks Orpik D | 16:01 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.14 | +0.91 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Carlson D | 28:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.12 | +0.75 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jakub Vrana L | 15:17 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.11 | +0.70 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 20:07 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.39 | +0.56 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Djoos D | 16:52 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 10:07 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 6:29 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 10:16 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 11:39 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Devante Smith-Pelly R | 9:37 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matt Niskanen D | 22:07 | −0.25 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 18:47 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.12 | −0.32 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Lars Eller C | 12:19 | −0.41 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.04 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 24:22 | −0.48 | −0.21 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Madison Bowey D | 11:11 | −0.49 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 24:12 | 1 | −0.55 | −0.27 | −0.29 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Brett Connolly R | 18:24 | 1 | −0.77 | −0.14 | −0.41 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Braden Holtby G | 61:20 | −2.46 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Letang D | 25:41 | 2 | 1 | +2.05 | +0.40 | +1.63 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jake Guentzel C | 18:48 | 2 | +1.48 | +0.29 | +1.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 13:59 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.07 | +0.90 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derick Brassard C | 14:28 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.37 | +0.29 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 21:43 | 1 | 2 | +0.80 | −0.06 | +0.68 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.01 |
| Jack Johnson D | 21:58 | +0.35 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 16:07 | 2 | +0.23 | +0.25 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dominik Simon C | 9:51 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.27 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Olli Maatta D | 19:09 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 19:42 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.12 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 14:40 | −0.04 | +0.32 | −0.52 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sprong R | 6:47 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Schultz D | 17:38 | 2 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Cullen C | 9:43 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 22:01 | 2 | −0.20 | +0.27 | −0.75 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.03 | |
| Riley Sheahan C | 12:41 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 21:36 | 2 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Carl Hagelin L | 14:29 | −0.48 | −0.02 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Murray G | 61:20 | −2.83 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.