FLA beat CAR 3–2. Expected goals were close to even (CAR 2.5, FLA 2.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Alexander Petrovic scored at 12:02 of the third, moving FLA’s win probability from 52% to 85%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:44 | CAR | Trevor van Riemsdyk from Brock McGinn, Justin Williams | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 4:03 | FLA | MacKenzie Weegar from Jared McCann, Denis Malgin | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 19:50 | FLA | Evgenii DadonovPP from Aleksander Barkov, Vincent Trocheck | 1–2 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 13:48 | CAR | Derek Ryan from Lee Stempniak, Klas Dahlbeck | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 12:02 | FLA | Alexander Petrovic from Aleksander Barkov, Colton Sceviour | 2–3 | 52% → 85% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 19:58 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.06 | +0.75 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Ryan C | 11:43 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.13 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Klas Dahlbeck D | 20:43 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Williams R | 18:01 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 13:55 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 18:23 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 24:08 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lee Stempniak R | 10:52 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joakim Nordstrom C | 10:35 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valentin Zykov L | 15:36 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 21:41 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 20:04 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 17:46 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 16:59 | −0.28 | −0.12 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Roland McKeown D | 10:11 | −0.28 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 17:52 | −0.31 | −0.12 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 16:16 | −0.39 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 15:19 | 1 | −0.50 | +0.01 | −0.67 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Darling G | 57:35 | −0.20 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Petrovic D | 16:19 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.17 | +0.87 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 15:22 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.17 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 17:24 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.10 | +0.69 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aaron Ekblad D | 21:20 | +0.28 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek MacKenzie C | 8:40 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 14:48 | +0.02 | +0.22 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 16:06 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.23 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Mark Pysyk D | 19:23 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keith Yandle D | 23:01 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 23:23 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denis Malgin C | 15:25 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 18:04 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.34 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Colton Sceviour C | 12:47 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 20:11 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Micheal Haley L | 6:52 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie McGinn L | 16:34 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 19:05 | 2 | −0.27 | −0.13 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 13:16 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Roberto Luongo G | 60:00 | +0.57 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.