BUF beat NSH 7–4. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Sam Reinhart scored on the power play at 17:18 of the second, moving BUF’s win probability from 48% to 72%. Pekka Rinne allowed 3.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:43 | BUF | Jason Pominville from Zemgus Girgensons, Jack Eichel | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 2:59 | NSH | P.K. SubbanPP from Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen | 1–1 | 38% → 53% |
| P1 17:00 | NSH | Austin Watson from Mattias Ekholm, Nick Bonino | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 2:00 | NSH | Kyle Turris from Craig Smith, Kevin Fiala | 1–3 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 5:45 | BUF | Ryan O'ReillyPP from Jack Eichel, Rasmus Ristolainen | 2–3 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 7:20 | BUF | Kyle Okposo from Evan Rodrigues, Casey Mittelstadt | 3–3 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 12:50 | NSH | Nick Bonino from Ryan Ellis, Austin Watson | 3–4 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 15:04 | BUF | Sam ReinhartPP from Rasmus Ristolainen, Jack Eichel | 4–4 | 26% → 48% |
| P2 17:18 | BUF | Sam ReinhartPP from Ryan O'Reilly, Jack Eichel | 5–4 | 48% → 72% |
| P2 19:00 | BUF | Kyle OkposoPP from Rasmus Ristolainen, Jack Eichel | 6–4 | 73% → 89% |
| P3 8:17 | BUF | Sam Reinhart from Ryan O'Reilly | 7–4 | 94% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Reinhart C | 18:06 | 3 | +2.58 | +0.19 | +2.24 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 16:07 | 2 | +1.73 | +0.24 | +1.48 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 22:45 | 1 | 2 | +0.65 | +0.28 | +0.44 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Jason Pominville R | 15:40 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.04 | +0.61 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johan Larsson L | 14:30 | +0.29 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.36 | +0.03 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 28:05 | 3 | +0.22 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Antipin D | 9:05 | +0.19 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 13:59 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Casey Nelson D | 19:58 | +0.04 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Falk D | 12:39 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 22:26 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Baptiste R | 9:01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Wilson C | 16:14 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 14:48 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Guhle D | 17:07 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 19:37 | 5 | −0.30 | +0.20 | −0.52 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 12:11 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Benoit Pouliot L | 10:50 | −0.34 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson G | 60:00 | −1.58 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bonino C | 17:43 | 1 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.13 | +0.88 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Kyle Turris C | 17:25 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.08 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.05 | |
| P.K. Subban D | 22:13 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.20 | +0.73 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Austin Watson L | 17:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.13 | +0.68 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Anthony Bitetto D | 15:08 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 20:16 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 13:34 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexei Emelin D | 14:39 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 6:22 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 16:10 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 13:15 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Craig Smith C | 14:41 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 13:56 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 18:28 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Scott Hartnell L | 6:15 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Ellis D | 24:27 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.30 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Roman Josi D | 25:01 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.10 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Fisher C | 13:18 | −0.39 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 17:04 | −0.45 |
| Pekka Rinne G | 40:00 | −3.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.