VGK beat STL 4–3 in overtime. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 1.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jonathan Marchessault scored at 0:22 of overtime, moving VGK’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Jake Allen allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:54 | STL | Patrik Berglund from Alexander Steen, Kyle Brodziak | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 6:18 | VGK | William KarlssonSH from Cody Eakin | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 13:31 | VGK | Jonathan Marchessault from Alex Tuch, William Karlsson | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 16:09 | STL | Brayden Schenn from Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 16:35 | VGK | James Neal from Erik Haula, Tomas Tatar | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 6:14 | STL | Chris Thorburn from Scottie Upshall, Oskar Sundqvist | 3–3 | 20% → 48% |
| OT 0:22 | VGK | Jonathan Marchessault from Nate Schmidt, William Karlsson | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Thorburn R | 7:42 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.02 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 20:31 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.12 | +0.75 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Patrik Berglund C | 17:07 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.04 | +0.77 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.04 | |
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 8:03 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 25:59 | +0.03 | +0.13 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Schmaltz D | 2:42 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 12:51 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scottie Upshall R | 8:37 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Brodziak C | 16:47 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 28:39 | −0.09 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 21:23 | −0.09 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitrij Jaskin R | 14:56 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 18:45 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Steen L | 17:07 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Joel Edmundson D | 26:28 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 20:28 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.31 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Vladimir Sobotka C | 16:09 | −0.22 | −0.07 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 14:52 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 60:22 | −1.83 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 22:20 | 2 | +1.80 | +0.13 | +1.57 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.07 | |
| William Karlsson C | 22:19 | 1 | 2 | +0.65 | +0.18 | +0.42 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| James Neal L | 15:50 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.02 | +0.55 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 23:41 | +0.18 | +0.20 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 21:05 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Deryk Engelland D | 22:35 | +0.10 | +0.16 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 19:31 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 19:36 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Eakin C | 13:24 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Oscar Lindberg L | 8:01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 9:17 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 12:20 | −0.06 | +0.07 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 14:35 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Carpenter C | 11:58 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brad Hunt D | 15:08 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 18:58 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 9:56 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 16:47 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Subban G | 60:07 | −1.39 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.