NJD beat CAR 4–3. NJD also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Stefan Noesen scored at 18:27 of the third, moving NJD’s win probability from 50% to 95%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:47 | NJD | Pavel Zacha from Kyle Palmieri, Taylor Hall | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 11:41 | CAR | Phillip Di Giuseppe from Elias Lindholm, Jeff Skinner | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 16:53 | CAR | Warren Foegele from Lee Stempniak, Derek Ryan | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 14:07 | NJD | Kyle PalmieriPP from Taylor Hall, Will Butcher | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 3:39 | CAR | Noah Hanifin from Trevor van Riemsdyk, Jeff Skinner | 3–2 | 48% → 75% |
| P3 11:05 | NJD | Kyle PalmieriPP from Taylor Hall, Will Butcher | 3–3 | 20% → 53% |
| P3 18:27 | NJD | Stefan Noesen from Andy Greene, Michael Grabner | 3–4 | 50% → 95% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Hanifin D | 19:47 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.06 | +0.77 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Warren Foegele L | 12:39 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.00 | +0.66 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 13:35 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.19 | +0.78 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 18:42 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 22:19 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Ryan C | 12:40 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Lee Stempniak R | 9:44 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Haydn Fleury D | 14:54 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roland McKeown D | 13:12 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 17:14 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.10 | |
| Justin Williams R | 13:26 | −0.34 | −0.11 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Valentin Zykov L | 15:49 | −0.40 | −0.05 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 25:12 | −0.45 | −0.39 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 18:20 | −0.45 | −0.27 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 18:08 | −0.47 | −0.25 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 15:14 | −0.48 | −0.23 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 14:34 | 2 | −0.53 | −0.20 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Klas Dahlbeck D | 19:12 | −0.58 | −0.28 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Darling G | 58:35 | +0.35 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Palmieri C | 18:02 | 2 | 1 | +1.63 | +0.09 | +1.18 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.36 | −0.02 |
| Pavel Zacha C | 12:55 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.22 | +0.67 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Stefan Noesen R | 13:45 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.25 | +0.56 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 14:44 | +0.21 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 12:23 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Andy Greene D | 22:25 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.17 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 17:23 | +0.07 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 20:22 | +0.03 | +0.23 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Gibbons C | 11:00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mirco Mueller D | 17:40 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Grabner L | 15:49 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.24 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Zajac C | 19:17 | −0.03 | +0.24 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Will Butcher D | 14:51 | 2 | −0.11 | +0.17 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Boyle C | 9:53 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sami Vatanen D | 22:28 | −0.19 | +0.23 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 20:27 | 3 | −0.28 | +0.22 | −0.57 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 12:31 | −0.29 | +0.07 | −0.36 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Moore D | 18:10 | −0.41 | +0.02 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Keith Kinkaid G | 59:55 | −0.68 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.