FLA beat ARI 4–2. FLA also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Denis Malgin scored at 16:15 of the third, moving FLA’s win probability from 51% to 90%. Darcy Kuemper saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:36 |  ARI | Clayton Keller from Richard Panik, Derek Stepan | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 1:33 | ARI | Richard PanikPP from Derek Stepan, Clayton Keller | 2–0 | 67% → 81% |
| P3 6:13 |  FLA | Vincent Trocheck from Jamie McGinn, Keith Yandle | 2–1 | 7% → 23% |
| P3 9:33 | FLA | Vincent Trocheck from Mark Pysyk, Jonathan Huberdeau | 2–2 | 20% → 52% |
| P3 16:15 | FLA | Denis Malgin from Colton Sceviour, Maxim Mamin | 2–3 | 51% → 90% |
| P3 19:46 | FLA | Jamie McGinnEN from Aleksander Barkov, Vincent Trocheck | 2–4 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Keller R | 16:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.14 | +0.74 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Richard Panik R | 16:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.21 | +0.34 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Trevor Murphy D | 10:39 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Connauton D | 16:10 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 10:14 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Richardson R | 15:08 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 20:25 | −0.22 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 16:32 | −0.22 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 18:49 | 2 | −0.23 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 13:26 | −0.23 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Perlini L | 12:33 | −0.24 | +0.04 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 13:43 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 26:30 | −0.27 | −0.25 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Archibald R | 13:29 | −0.31 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 11:55 | −0.34 | −0.10 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 24:39 | −0.35 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 22:34 | −0.49 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 12:12 | −0.56 | +0.07 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 59:31 | +1.21 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Trocheck C | 20:27 | 2 | 1 | +1.79 | +0.24 | +1.48 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Denis Malgin C | 14:16 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.02 | +0.57 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mark Pysyk D | 15:30 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.36 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 18:23 | +0.23 | +0.14 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Petrovic D | 16:34 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie McGinn L | 13:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Keith Yandle D | 25:53 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.16 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek MacKenzie C | 8:11 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 17:14 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 10:41 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 21:44 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 19:50 | −0.08 | +0.29 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sceviour C | 9:30 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.15 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Maxim Mamin C | 10:25 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.07 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 20:25 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.17 | −0.62 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 17:14 | −0.20 | +0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 13:23 | −0.36 | −0.04 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 24:07 | 1 | −0.47 | +0.23 | −0.77 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 60:00 | +0.54 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.