CAR beat NYI 4–3. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Trevor van Riemsdyk scored at 13:11 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 49% to 84%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:50 | CAR | Jaccob Slavin from Joakim Nordstrom, Victor Rask | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 4:44 | CAR | Lee Stempniak unassisted | 2–0 | 63% → 75% |
| P2 10:29 | NYI | Josh Bailey from Ryan Pulock, John Tavares | 2–1 | 16% → 31% |
| P2 12:22 | NYI | Anders LeePP from John Tavares, Mathew Barzal | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 14:04 | CAR | Victor Rask from Joakim Nordstrom, Jaccob Slavin | 3–2 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 8:05 | NYI | Anders LeePP from Josh Bailey, John Tavares | 3–3 | 23% → 52% |
| P3 13:11 | CAR | Trevor van Riemsdyk from Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho | 4–3 | 49% → 84% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaccob Slavin D | 21:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.18 | +0.47 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 16:30 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.04 | +0.38 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joakim Nordstrom C | 12:49 | 2 | +0.49 | +0.13 | −0.21 | +0.38 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Victor Rask C | 11:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.12 | +0.29 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Lee Stempniak R | 12:39 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.01 | +0.42 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 15:47 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Haydn Fleury D | 16:31 | +0.15 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 11:00 | +0.06 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 22:10 | +0.04 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 13:01 | −0.08 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 18:27 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Klas Dahlbeck D | 17:02 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 16:30 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 16:41 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Derek Ryan C | 16:13 | −0.21 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 19:50 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.24 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Williams R | 15:33 | −0.38 | −0.03 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 20:27 | −0.39 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Darling G | 60:00 | +0.57 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anders Lee C | 18:13 | 2 | +0.58 | −0.01 | +0.65 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho D | 13:33 | +0.36 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 17:47 | 3 | +0.23 | +0.20 | −0.27 | +0.32 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 20:27 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Bailey R | 20:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.20 | +0.12 | +0.17 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mathew Barzal C | 21:52 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 11:08 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Thomas Hickey D | 19:00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 14:59 | −0.04 | +0.15 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 11:31 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 16:40 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Wagner R | 11:10 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Johnny Boychuk D | 22:49 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 22:59 | −0.28 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Fritz C | 10:59 | −0.29 | −0.07 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 12:23 | −0.31 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Ladd L | 12:00 | −0.34 | −0.13 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 16:14 | −0.38 | +0.03 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jaroslav Halak G | 57:57 | −0.56 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.