OTT beat DAL 3–2 in overtime. OTT lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 2.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mike Hoffman scored at 3:26 of overtime, moving OTT’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:36 | DAL | Tyler SeguinPP from Jamie Benn, Alexander Radulov | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P3 2:20 | OTT | Marian GaborikPP from Ryan Dzingel, Thomas Chabot | 1–1 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 16:50 | OTT | Matt Duchene from Erik Karlsson, Mike Hoffman | 1–2 | 51% → 91% |
| P3 18:12 | DAL | Tyler Pitlick from Dan Hamhuis, Jamie Benn | 2–2 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 3:26 | OTT | Mike Hoffman from Matt Duchene, Erik Karlsson | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Seguin C | 23:24 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.23 | +0.50 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Tyler Pitlick C | 14:59 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.19 | +0.41 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Greg Pateryn D | 21:29 | +0.35 | +0.33 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Antoine Roussel L | 15:15 | +0.24 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 20:55 | 2 | +0.07 | +0.24 | −0.25 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 24:35 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Remi Elie L | 9:32 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dan Hamhuis D | 24:00 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Julius Honka D | 9:57 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 8:33 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 18:50 | +0.03 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Stephen Johns D | 17:40 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Spezza C | 10:56 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Gemel Smith C | 9:03 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devin Shore C | 11:32 | −0.09 | +0.08 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 26:02 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Radulov R | 21:26 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Janmark C | 15:32 | −0.62 | −0.11 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Bishop G | 62:48 | −0.91 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Hoffman C | 24:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.09 | +0.70 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Marian Gaborik R | 12:57 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.06 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 22:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.11 | +0.60 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| Alexandre Burrows R | 13:19 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mark Borowiecki D | 14:48 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jim O'Brien C | 7:34 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Magnus Paajarvi L | 15:16 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fredrik Claesson D | 13:18 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max McCormick L | 7:04 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 19:19 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.10 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 23:08 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 31:15 | 2 | −0.15 | −0.23 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Pyatt L | 15:10 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Bobby Ryan R | 17:10 | −0.19 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zack Smith C | 16:32 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.16 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ben Harpur D | 17:16 | −0.25 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Dzingel C | 22:06 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.05 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 16:48 | −0.48 | −0.13 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 63:26 | +0.12 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.