SJS beat EDM 4–3 in overtime. SJS also won the expected-goals battle 4.2 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Tomas Hertl scored at 2:40 of overtime, moving SJS’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:39 | EDM | Drake Caggiula from Zack Kassian, Jujhar Khaira | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 8:03 | SJS | Tomas Hertl from Logan Couture, Mikkel Boedker | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 7:44 | EDM | Oscar Klefbom from Connor McDavid, Pontus Aberg | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 10:01 | SJS | Logan CouturePP from Brent Burns, Joe Pavelski | 2–2 | 27% → 48% |
| P3 1:26 | EDM | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins from Oscar Klefbom, Connor McDavid | 2–3 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 9:05 | SJS | Brenden Dillon from Mikkel Boedker, Tomas Hertl | 3–3 | 18% → 48% |
| OT 2:40 | SJS | Tomas Hertl from Logan Couture | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Hertl C | 18:08 | 2 | 1 | +1.08 | +0.28 | +0.74 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Logan Couture C | 19:47 | 1 | 2 | +1.05 | +0.15 | +0.42 | +0.47 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Brenden Dillon D | 15:51 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.02 | +0.44 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikkel Boedker L | 15:12 | 2 | +0.28 | +0.08 | −0.09 | +0.29 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 27:10 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.28 | −0.47 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Pavelski C | 20:38 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.22 | −0.00 | −0.15 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 22:20 | +0.11 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Fehr C | 11:15 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Justin Braun D | 20:20 | +0.08 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joakim Ryan D | 17:35 | +0.04 | +0.16 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joonas Donskoi R | 17:04 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Sorensen L | 8:54 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 13:53 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Melker Karlsson C | 12:32 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 12:26 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 19:50 | −0.20 | +0.15 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 17:22 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 15:43 | −0.54 | −0.08 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Jones G | 62:40 | −0.68 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oscar Klefbom D | 19:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.08 | +0.46 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Drake Caggiula L | 12:52 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.06 | +0.42 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 22:07 | 2 | +0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.28 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 19:34 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.18 | +0.29 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kris Russell D | 15:48 | −0.04 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethan Bear D | 17:29 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrej Sekera D | 17:11 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jujhar Khaira L | 14:49 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Milan Lucic L | 13:11 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.14 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 13:18 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 17:35 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 12:41 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Kassian R | 12:23 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.04 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Iiro Pakarinen R | 11:46 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Cammalleri L | 12:15 | −0.20 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 25:00 | −0.22 | −0.14 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 26:19 | −0.33 | −0.26 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Aberg L | 17:38 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.21 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Al Montoya G | 62:40 | −0.36 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.