ARI beat LAK 4–3 in a shootout. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jeff Carter scored at 17:42 of the third, moving LAK’s win probability from 7% to 50%. Jack Campbell allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:08 | ARI | Clayton Keller from Derek Stepan | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 15:43 | ARI | Nick Cousins from Niklas Hjalmarsson | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 10:13 | ARI | Christian Dvorak from Max Domi, Nick Cousins | 0–3 | 88% → 96% |
| P2 10:40 | LAK | Tanner Pearson from Adrian Kempe, Tyler Toffoli | 1–3 | 4% → 11% |
| P3 12:03 | LAK | Jeff CarterPP from Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin | 2–3 | 3% → 15% |
| P3 17:42 | LAK | Jeff Carter from Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar | 3–3 | 7% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Carter C | 20:48 | 2 | +1.44 | +0.27 | +1.40 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.03 | −0.36 | |
| Tanner Pearson L | 16:21 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.02 | +0.82 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Adrian Kempe R | 16:24 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.05 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +1.04 | |
| Jake Muzzin D | 22:48 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anze Kopitar C | 23:35 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.36 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.31 | |
| Alec Martinez D | 21:23 | +0.02 | +0.22 | −0.24 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dion Phaneuf D | 20:21 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Forbort D | 16:51 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tobias Rieder L | 11:42 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Christian Folin D | 13:49 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Clifford L | 13:10 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Torrey Mitchell C | 11:19 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 11:01 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nate Thompson C | 13:05 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dustin Brown R | 20:21 | −0.29 | +0.06 | −0.36 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 30:49 | 2 | −0.36 | +0.24 | −0.59 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 18:09 | 1 | −0.49 | +0.06 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.46 | |
| Trevor Lewis C | 14:10 | −0.52 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.46 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell G | 65:00 | −1.71 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Keller R | 17:36 | 1 | +1.40 | −0.24 | +0.81 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.82 | |
| Alex Goligoski D | 26:29 | +0.89 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.04 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 14:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.03 | +0.88 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.31 |
| Christian Dvorak C | 15:07 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.01 | +0.89 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.46 | |
| Max Domi C | 15:37 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Demers D | 21:31 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 10:17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Perlini L | 13:18 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Freddie Hamilton C | 11:14 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 16:42 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Archibald R | 12:04 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Niklas Hjalmarsson D | 20:13 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 22:02 | −0.24 | +0.07 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 21:43 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Richardson R | 18:45 | −0.36 | −0.07 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Connauton D | 16:35 | −0.45 | −0.29 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 18:51 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.27 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Richard Panik R | 18:04 | −0.78 | −0.07 | −0.39 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.14 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 65:00 | +0.28 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.