BOS beat CAR 6–4. BOS lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: David Pastrnak scored on the power play at 16:30 of the third, moving BOS’s win probability from 51% to 90%. Cam Ward allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:49 | BOS | Brad Marchand from David Pastrnak, Riley Nash | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 2:10 | CAR | Sebastian AhoPP from Teuvo Teravainen, Justin Faulk | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 12:06 | CAR | Teuvo TeravainenPP from Sebastian Aho, Justin Faulk | 1–2 | 58% → 75% |
| P2 18:43 | CAR | Justin Williams from Brock McGinn, Elias Lindholm | 1–3 | 77% → 91% |
| P3 0:51 | CAR | Brock McGinnSH from Elias Lindholm | 1–4 | 92% → 98% |
| P3 10:04 | BOS | Matt Grzelcyk from Sean Kuraly, Tim Schaller | 2–4 | 0% → 4% |
| P3 11:00 | BOS | David Pastrnak from Brad Marchand | 3–4 | 3% → 16% |
| P3 11:21 | BOS | Danton Heinen from David Krejci, Rick Nash | 4–4 | 16% → 48% |
| P3 16:30 | BOS | David PastrnakPP from Matt Grzelcyk, Brad Marchand | 5–4 | 51% → 90% |
| P3 18:26 | BOS | David PastrnakEN from Kevan Miller, Riley Nash | 6–4 | 93% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danton Heinen L | 10:02 | 1 | +1.23 | +0.08 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.36 | −0.01 | |
| David Pastrnak R | 17:36 | 3 | 1 | +0.97 | −0.09 | +1.22 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 19:26 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.05 | +0.86 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Brad Marchand L | 20:45 | 1 | 2 | +0.50 | −0.08 | +0.73 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.02 |
| Brandon Carlo D | 18:48 | +0.18 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevan Miller D | 22:07 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Krejci C | 15:15 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Nick Holden D | 24:05 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 12:11 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 16:48 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rick Nash L | 16:08 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 11:53 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 10:48 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Nash C | 15:24 | 2 | −0.23 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.11 | |
| David Backes R | 17:43 | −0.31 | +0.11 | −0.41 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Schaller L | 13:57 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.04 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Gionta R | 13:47 | −0.39 | +0.04 | −0.45 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zdeno Chara D | 14:47 | −0.44 | −0.08 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tuukka Rask G | 59:57 | −1.04 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho C | 18:04 | 1 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.03 | +0.80 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.01 |
| Justin Williams R | 16:27 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.06 | +0.68 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 16:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.03 | +0.69 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Brock McGinn L | 14:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.12 | +0.41 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Justin Faulk D | 25:04 | 2 | +0.13 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 20:41 | 2 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.10 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 19:37 | +0.06 | +0.02 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.06 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 16:11 | +0.05 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 12:04 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 19:31 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 17:23 | −0.03 | +0.11 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lee Stempniak R | 7:34 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 15:48 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Victor Rask C | 17:17 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.04 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 16:23 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Joakim Nordstrom C | 11:19 | −0.25 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 11:05 | −0.38 | −0.05 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.05 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 18:39 | −0.43 | −0.02 | −0.41 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward G | 59:42 | −1.91 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.