WSH beat WPG 3–2 in overtime. WSH also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Evgeny Kuznetsov scored at 4:11 of overtime, moving WSH’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Connor Hellebuyck saved 1.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:35 | WSH | Alex OvechkinPP from John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom | 0–1 | 57% → 70% |
| P1 5:33 | WPG | Nikolaj Ehlers unassisted | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P2 3:53 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from Tom Wilson, Evgeny Kuznetsov | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P3 5:02 | WPG | Patrik Laine from Paul Stastny, Dustin Byfuglien | 2–2 | 20% → 48% |
| OT 4:11 | WSH | Evgeny Kuznetsov from Chandler Stephenson | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrik Laine L | 18:48 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.33 | +0.63 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 16:19 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.22 | +0.49 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Wheeler R | 23:38 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Joe Morrow D | 10:20 | +0.10 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tucker Poolman D | 10:38 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 10:49 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 24:04 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 21:50 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 11:36 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 14:31 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matt Hendricks C | 6:11 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 10:45 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Paul Stastny C | 18:46 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mathieu Perreault C | 14:06 | −0.31 | −0.06 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 18:11 | −0.33 | +0.03 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Bryan Little C | 22:33 | −0.50 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.36 | +0.02 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 24:24 | −0.60 | −0.55 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dustin Byfuglien D | 30:56 | 1 | −0.67 | −0.66 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 64:11 | +1.51 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin L | 23:07 | 2 | +1.48 | +0.60 | +0.82 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 23:13 | 1 | 1 | +1.41 | +0.68 | +0.38 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.36 | −0.06 |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 24:26 | +0.30 | +0.34 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Niskanen D | 25:14 | +0.24 | +0.23 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 10:29 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 18:22 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.14 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Brooks Orpik D | 18:43 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devante Smith-Pelly R | 9:53 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 24:26 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.39 | −0.43 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 20:58 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.14 | −0.40 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.18 | +0.02 | |
| Michal Kempny D | 16:16 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Jerabek D | 12:23 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay Beagle C | 10:02 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.09 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 14:17 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 15:01 | −0.28 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Vrana L | 10:04 | −0.30 | −0.10 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Connolly R | 15:48 | −0.30 | −0.11 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| T.J. Oshie R | 17:00 | −0.78 | +0.31 | −0.73 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.36 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 64:11 | +0.18 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.