VGK beat PHI 3–2. VGK lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ryan Carpenter scored at 17:20 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 49% to 91%. Marc-Andre Fleury saved 1.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:17 | VGK | Erik HaulaPP from David Perron, Nate Schmidt | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 1:27 | PHI | Claude Giroux from Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P3 6:00 | VGK | William KarlssonPP from Tomas Hyka, Shea Theodore | 2–1 | 49% → 76% |
| P3 7:06 | PHI | Wayne SimmondsPP from Jakub Voracek, Shayne Gostisbehere | 2–2 | 24% → 52% |
| P3 17:20 | VGK | Ryan Carpenter from Cody Eakin, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare | 3–2 | 49% → 91% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Haula L | 12:50 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.20 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| William Karlsson C | 20:07 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.32 | +0.42 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.02 | |
| Ryan Carpenter C | 14:50 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.20 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 16:50 | +0.12 | +0.33 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 15:21 | +0.11 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 8:28 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 17:13 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hyka R | 10:01 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.12 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Nosek L | 10:42 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 14:12 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.21 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Deryk Engelland D | 20:29 | −0.28 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 24:03 | −0.30 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Eakin C | 17:49 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 26:19 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.34 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 19:24 | −0.33 | +0.32 | −0.42 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.04 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 13:05 | −0.34 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 16:18 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.40 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 15:24 | 1 | −0.65 | −0.01 | −0.47 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 60:00 | +1.87 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Giroux R | 22:41 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.43 | +0.20 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Jakub Voracek R | 19:12 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.48 | −0.25 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Wayne Simmonds R | 18:57 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.33 | +0.18 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 21:21 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.27 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 18:10 | +0.12 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 23:25 | +0.11 | +0.06 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nolan Patrick C | 13:07 | −0.03 | +0.18 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 9:07 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Valtteri Filppula C | 17:48 | −0.05 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.11 | ||
| Matt Read R | 6:21 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jori Lehtera C | 8:41 | −0.12 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Michael Raffl L | 14:46 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 18:01 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.14 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew MacDonald D | 16:48 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Lindblom L | 13:21 | −0.23 | +0.18 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 24:08 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.27 | −0.54 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brandon Manning D | 18:05 | −0.28 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 14:16 | −0.28 | +0.04 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 58:25 | −0.39 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.