NJD beat NSH 3–2 in a shootout. NJD lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ryan Johansen scored on the power play at 18:54 of the third, moving NSH’s win probability from 6% to 50%. Keith Kinkaid saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:17 | NSH | Mattias Ekholm unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 7:13 | NJD | Sami Vatanen from Miles Wood, Will Butcher | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 11:24 | NJD | Brian Boyle from Damon Severson, Patrick Maroon | 2–1 | 48% → 69% |
| P3 18:54 | NSH | Ryan JohansenPP from Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi | 2–2 | 6% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Boyle C | 17:33 | 1 | +1.46 | −0.26 | +0.90 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +1.04 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 22:19 | +0.79 | −0.12 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +1.04 | ||
| Sami Vatanen D | 26:52 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.29 | +0.84 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Gibbons C | 15:04 | +0.11 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| John Moore D | 20:45 | +0.09 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 22:37 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 16:21 | +0.04 | +0.16 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Lovejoy D | 16:29 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Butcher D | 14:14 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Maroon L | 14:53 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andy Greene D | 21:54 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 15:53 | −0.32 | −0.12 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 11:32 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Michael Grabner L | 14:41 | −0.42 | +0.03 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 17:36 | −0.49 | +0.04 | −0.54 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Stafford R | 13:38 | −0.50 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.46 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 10:06 | −0.50 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.36 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 18:54 | −0.52 | −0.09 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.31 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Keith Kinkaid G | 64:39 | +1.33 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Johansen C | 21:43 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.26 | +0.71 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 22:26 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.18 | +0.67 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Turris C | 15:30 | +0.71 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +1.04 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 21:22 | +0.24 | +0.11 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Fisher C | 10:26 | +0.22 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 15:18 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 14:48 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexei Emelin D | 12:32 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 26:21 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.19 | −0.28 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| P.K. Subban D | 25:50 | −0.10 | +0.17 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yannick Weber D | 12:00 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Hartnell L | 9:47 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 13:34 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 11:49 | −0.18 | +0.06 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Ellis D | 26:25 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.16 | −0.14 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.31 | |
| Kevin Fiala L | 17:05 | −0.54 | +0.13 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.36 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 17:28 | −0.60 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.46 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 16:45 | −0.80 | +0.02 | −0.38 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.46 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pekka Rinne G | 2:08 | +0.00 |
| Juuse Saros G | 63:57 | −0.87 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.