NYR beat CGY 3–1. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 4.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Pavel Buchnevich scored at 0:56 of the second, moving NYR’s win probability from 47% to 66%. Henrik Lundqvist saved 4.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:07 | NYR | Kevin Hayes from Ryan Spooner | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 16:39 | CGY | Brett Kulak from Michael Frolik, Matthew Tkachuk | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 0:56 | NYR | Pavel Buchnevich from Chris Kreider, Neal Pionk | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 10:48 | NYR | Ryan Spooner from Tony DeAngelo | 3–1 | 69% → 85% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 14:59 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.14 | +0.57 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 19:29 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.70 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Spooner C | 15:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.02 | +0.47 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 19:59 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Cody McLeod L | 6:04 | −0.02 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| John Gilmour D | 24:36 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 18:05 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 13:51 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.14 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tony DeAngelo D | 13:13 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rob O'Gara D | 12:43 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 16:37 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 16:08 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 20:52 | −0.22 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 18:31 | −0.25 | +0.08 | −0.51 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Peter Holland C | 8:50 | −0.34 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Paul Carey C | 9:16 | −0.36 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 23:43 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.22 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 21:12 | −0.54 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.54 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Henrik Lundqvist G | 60:00 | +4.16 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Kulak D | 12:00 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.24 | +0.78 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 9:43 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 24:14 | −0.04 | +0.09 | −0.26 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Glass L | 7:38 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Stone D | 14:45 | −0.06 | +0.27 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Shore C | 11:08 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 22:12 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Brouwer R | 10:47 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 28:06 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.21 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 16:48 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 10:58 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 18:03 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Stajan C | 9:15 | −0.21 | +0.10 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 25:10 | −0.22 | +0.06 | −0.30 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 20:39 | −0.36 | +0.02 | −0.54 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 20:12 | −0.42 | +0.15 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.36 | −0.03 | ||
| Michael Frolik R | 16:05 | 1 | −0.60 | +0.08 | −0.67 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 19:28 | 1 | −0.81 | +0.06 | −0.89 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Gillies G | 56:49 | −0.03 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.