MTL beat NYI 6–3. Expected goals were close to even (MTL 2.8, NYI 2.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Paul Byron scored at 8:10 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 48% to 78%. Jaroslav Halak allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:28 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Alex Galchenyuk, Jonathan Drouin | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 19:54 | NYI | Tanner Fritz from Brock Nelson, Thomas Hickey | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 2:17 | MTL | Alex Galchenyuk from David Schlemko | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 4:23 | NYI | Josh Bailey from Nick Leddy | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 10:31 | MTL | Alex Galchenyuk from Mike Reilly | 3–2 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 19:56 | NYI | Brock NelsonPP from Anthony Beauvillier, Andrew Ladd | 3–3 | 28% → 52% |
| P3 8:10 | MTL | Paul Byron from Brendan Gallagher, Jacob de la Rose | 4–3 | 48% → 78% |
| P3 9:53 | MTL | Noah Juulsen from Artturi Lehkonen, Mike Reilly | 5–3 | 80% → 96% |
| P3 19:11 | MTL | Alex GalchenyukEN unassisted | 6–3 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 17:07 | 3 | 1 | +1.21 | +0.01 | +1.22 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Noah Juulsen D | 21:54 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.03 | +0.90 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 15:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.09 | +0.65 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Paul Byron L | 14:37 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.07 | +0.63 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Schlemko D | 21:23 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 21:29 | 2 | +0.08 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Karl Alzner D | 22:41 | +0.08 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob de la Rose L | 13:13 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nikita Scherbak R | 14:09 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Byron Froese C | 14:33 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Victor Mete D | 5:48 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 23:13 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 13:25 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 15:45 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 16:18 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Daniel Carr L | 10:50 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Shaw R | 12:34 | −0.30 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 18:05 | 1 | −0.50 | −0.01 | −0.52 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 59:58 | +0.14 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Fritz C | 17:12 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.02 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Josh Bailey R | 19:45 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.05 | +0.58 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 17:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.14 | +0.59 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 |
| Mathew Barzal C | 23:05 | +0.14 | +0.06 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.36 | −0.06 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 13:26 | +0.13 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Davidson D | 10:42 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Boychuk D | 19:24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Hickey D | 14:53 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho D | 11:41 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Wagner R | 9:42 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 19:16 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 7:11 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Ladd L | 15:02 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 17:24 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 16:17 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Leddy D | 22:13 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 22:24 | −0.37 | −0.05 | −0.35 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 18:50 | −0.48 | −0.02 | −0.45 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jaroslav Halak G | 58:33 | −2.00 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.